Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD May 23, 2013
Although we did get the third push we were expecting. It was sloppy at best and there wasn’t an entry to take the trade. Of course it also took Ben Bernanke and the Fed Meeting Minutes to make the pop. We also have the first push down today after the blatant stop run that made that third push. I did take the hourly stop run short from 1.2943 and got hit during the stop run. I knew it was risky with the news coming up but the entry was one of those that I felt was worth the risk. The stop run was above a few daily levels and was pretty clear. However the fact remains they had more to clear out and I happened to be one of them. On to the next trade.
Today my bias will be for the short but I will be keeping an open mind. We are already getting a push down below yesterdays lows in Asia and if it can keep up and get a couple hourly closes below 1.2833 then I will be a little more bias on the short today and look to see the manipulation at the 1.2859 or 1.2871 levels. If it can get above those it has a good chance of going as high as the psych 1.2900 level. The safest place I will consider a long position is the recent lows at 1.2796 or just above at 1.2800 but will be watching the hourly chart for the close below there to keep me out.
The GBP/USD made the second push down as expected in yesterdays commentary. Not only do I hate when the Euro and Cable go opposite directions but even if I predict it I still have a very hard time trading it. It did help to take the Euro short yesterday with the nice hourly conviction close below Tuesdays lows which showed the USD strength. If we can manage to get a couple hourly closes below yesterdays low during Asia the best place to short from will be the 1.5063 level.
What does concern me is that its quite possible that we have 3 pushes down starting from the first marked push from last Friday but the push up in between does make that unlikely. On top of that the 1.5082 level is a major daily low and if its going to turn the best chance is there which is why I prefer to see some hourly closes below there before I am totally convinced they are going to push it down today. If they do go south it has a long way to go before the next heavy support level. The potential for the long is there but low and there will need to be clear price action showing me they just wont let it go below yesterdays lows and its not looking so great t the moment. Im pretty confident they will make the next push down today.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is busy today starting off with French, German and Euro Zone Manufacturing and Services PMI data. Expectations are for slight increases but with nothing showing that things are getting better in Europe the chance for the miss to the downside is higher the way I see it.
The UK has their GDP figures expected to be flat. As surprise upward will be GBP positive while a miss down negative. My thoughts are it will be as expected.
The US has another Fed member speaking and the Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to drop by 15K. Even if this misses downward I think it will need to be big in order to cause a decent reaction. New Home Sales is also due and with Mortgage applications and Existing Home Sales missing this has a higher probability of missing to the downside. This wont be good for the USD and/or any thoughts of a real housing recovery in the US.
Late in the trading day Super Mario Draghi has a speech so if you are in a trade at that time be careful.
Lets Put A Bug In Your Ear
It seems that most people don’t have a clue what is going on around them and to be honest it don’t surprise me due to the fact our world is so segregated with our professions not giving us much time to do anything outside of them. We pay people to do simple tasks because we can easily make more money at our job that it would cost us in the lost time to do the job ourself. Its an economic thing we are all victim to.
However today I am going to put a bug in your ear and hopefully you can find the time to do some research and get your friends and family to start trying to get this changed.
Anyway I watched a movie yesterday called Genetic Chile. Its a documentary on the Genetically Modified Foods and how Monsanto and the FDA has colluded to say these things are safe and we are currently eating them whether you know it or not. They even passed a law in the US last month that protected Monsanto from any lawsuits that arise from these GMO foods. Which begs the question of, If these are safe them why did they need the law. Well the fact is they don’t know if the food its self is dangerous or not however they do know that the GMO crops are designed to be resistant to the herbicides and pesticides which since these plants don’t get harmed by these chemicals they carry them and we ingest them every day. Ever wonder why you or your family has sudden allergies or sickness that is unexplained? Im not saying this is definitely the answer or reason but since they keep all the data secret how will we ever know? Here is a link where you can get this movie at a very low cost or you can watch it free when they run a repeat on Russia Today.
Another very interesting video I saw on youtube years ago was called The Whistleblowers. This was a documentary on PBS that dealt with some investigative reporters that were starting a new show blowing the whistle on certain activities. The problem is the series never saw air time due to the first story they investigated. Again it was Monsanto. This story covered how Monsanto was manipulating the milk in the US and saying there was no steroids, antibiotics and so forth in the cows or the milk. Well low and behold the reporters found out they were lying and was going to blow the whistle on them. Ok cool you might think until you learn why Fox killed the story and how and since the reporters wouldn’t drop it they waited until their contracts were up and fired them. Now the only place you could see it was on PBS or youtube. I cant find the whole video now but below is a clip. Enjoy, or if your like me get enraged.
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