Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 5th 2013
We finally got the reversal and have a first intraday push up on the EUR/USD this morning so I will have a bias for the long today. Since we keep getting a War on War off rhetoric from the US congress this has potential to keep in this range so I will be keeping an open mind for the short. Of course I will need to see enough to change my bias in the form of a stop run to the highs yesterday of 1.3216 but I would prefer it at 1.3226 showing they are getting more valuable stops. Otherwise I will be looking to take the long from 1.3182 or potentially lower at 1.3155 where it took off from yesterday.
I should also mention that with the average daily range getting tighter again, the Asian range pip distance I like to see to be convinced they have accumulated enough will be smaller also so the long entry on a good trap at 1.3182 wont be as aggressive. Providing price don’t leave the Asian box at its lows.
Should we get the conviction close above the highs then a long from 1.3196 or possibly 1.3216 is in the cards but the conviction will need to be convincing.
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The GBP/USD looks as though the flushing out of weak holders mentioned in yesterdays commentary were longs they wanted out of the market. Therefore I will have the long bias here today also. Since the pushes are not all that clear due to the price action Tuesday I will have an open mind for the short but as with the Euro it will need to be convincing with a stop run to the highs. Otherwise the best opportunity for the long position is at the psych 1.5600 level. I will be happier if they take stops below 1.5593 but that will not be a requirement for me to take the long above as long as the trapping patterns are clear. If they do break down and get as low as 1.5583 I will consider the long from there also.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off during the London session with a BOJ press conference so anyone who trades the Yen crosses should watch out during that time. My guess is that they will at least do some verbal exercises again and the Yen will weaken further. however there is the chance they disappoint on that front so be careful.
There are also some significant 10 year bond auctions from France and Spain today. My thoughts are they will go off fine mainly due to the war drums beating louder. Seems a little more than coincidental to me but it is what it is I guess. With war looming nobody will be so called unpatriotic and dump bonds so this is pretty much a done deal. late there is German Factory orders expected to drop but with the bar set low this has a better chance of missing to the upside and considering all the bond buying going on it would have to miss big to the downside to create a larger move.
The UK has their Rate Decision and Asset Purchases. I doubt this will cause much commotion unless they increase their QE which is unlikely the way I see it.
The ECB steps up to the plate next and of course it will be the Super Mario speech and press conference that steals the show later in the US session. This should be interesting since things seem to be slightly improving in the EZ when you look at the data but Im not so sure I buy the story. Especially considering both Greece and Ireland are asking for more help. Ireland in the form of more time and We all know Greece needs another 10 billion at least to stay afloat. I wonder who will get the chop there. Probably savers in my view but the might just learn from Cyprus and hold off on that.
The US ha ADP Non Farm and Thursday Unemployment data but barring large misses Mario will be who the big boys watch most.
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