April 11, 2013 Analysis for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
I always thought that the Fed would be one if not the only provider of data that would be safe from the insiders that get information and give it to their buddies for a price of course. It turns out I was wrong about that too. Of course I am never surprised to find out such things but in order to have any confidence that somebody is trying to do the right thing it would be somewhere close to the top. the Fed is as high as we can go in this instance. Now I am even closer to becoming the conspiracy theorist I have been trying to avoid because I want to believe. However now the evidence is convincing me otherwise and its not encouraging to say the least.
Just to sum up what happened with the Fed leak yesterday. First they thought that this bonehead Brian Gross just had a small brain fart and sent the info to congressional members. That only makes sense since his job at the Fed is Congressional Liaison. Well that is just expected as we know the politicians have eyes and ears everywhere in the financial markets getting and giving inside information making them rich. Just thinking of this makes me sick to my stomach. However come to find out after tracking just who this information went to it was a slew of other entities and cronies. Here is the list that seems to still be growing from CNN and Bloomberg.
- EMPLOYEES AT GOLDMAN SACHS, BARCLAYS, JP MORGAN, CITI, NOMURA, UBS, HSBC RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY YESTERDAY
- MOST OF THE BANK EMPLOYEES APPEAR TO WORK IN GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS (Lobbies)
- ABA, SIFMA, SENATE STAFFERS RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY
- FED NAMES 154 RECIPIENTS OF EARLY RELEASE OF FOMC MINUTES
- FED MINUTES SENT EARLY TO BANKS, LAW FIRMS, PRIVATE EQUITY
- FED EARLIER SAID RELEASE WENT MAINLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS
- NONE OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LIST ALERTED THE FED THAT THEY RECEIVED NONPUBLIC INFO A DAY EARLY
Now the question that’s burning in my head do they really expect us to believe that this was the first time? More likely the first time he got caught. Notice how nobody reported they got the info early. Why would they since they didn’t report it the hundreds or thousands of times before? Along with the news releases these guys get early.
On to the charts before I really lose my cool. 😉
The EUR/USD looks to have started the reversal but the push yesterday was lackluster at best with just a 78 pip push including Asia this morning. At this point I will be treating this as a third push chop. The safest entries will be at the highs or lows but the levels I will be watching are marked with the horizontal lines. Any signs of manipulation will need to be very clear at the levels inside the range.
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The GBP/USD is in the same predicament with only a 50 pip range yesterday. Today we should find out if the push down was actually false like I thought. As with the Euro I will be having no clear bias on direction and be looking at the highs or lows yesterday for a stop run. The problem with the highs is there are 2 more levels they may push to just behind yesterdays highs so it will need to be very clear and I would prefer the stop run to the overall highs. Otherwise the caution will be the same at the lows due to the potential of a test of the lows around !5248 where the hourly 200 EMA sits.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a bit busier today starting with German and French CPI figures. I have my doubts either of these will be a market mover today without a large surprise to the upside in the German numbers. Even if that does happen the move will most likely not be sustained since inflation is still well below the 2% level. later is the ECB Monthly Bulletin that will be looked at for any thing to show any change in what the ECB looked at for the rate decision. I doubt there will be much form this but there is the chance for the surprise.
The US has the weekly Unemployment Claims and a 30 year bond auction. A surprise in the Unemployment is possible and as usual the miss to the upside will be USD negative and the opposite positive. With the 10yr bond auction not going as expected yesterday todays has the chance of doing the same but I have my doubts.
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