April 25, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary
Well the EUR/USD has gone back into the range it was in last couple weeks and the reversal off the three intraday pushes I had marked yesterday. I’m rather sure the nasty Durable Goods data yesterday has something to do with it as more signs of the US slowing even though Bernanke prints 85 billion a month. Now it seems like the market is expecting a ramp up on the Fed print fest which wouldn’t surprise me at all. Even though it hasn’t been doing any good its the only thing they have left in their tool shed and they almost don’t have a choice. If they are going to keep up the propping up of the markets and keep their cronies happy they will have to do something. The only other option is to let the correction happen like they should have done in the beginning. If that does happen (which I highly doubt) all the cronies lose and not only will there be a correction in the markets but also a correction in the political crony system of which to this day has never been an option. So what will they do? Prop it up as long as they can in hopes by some miracle that the world suddenly spawns 10% growth a year. I guess anything is possible but being a trader makes me look at probabilities and they don’t look so good.
Now that we have the clear start of a first push up during Asia today I am expecting price to slow and find resistance around the 1.3067 level which it has already started. Then during the London session pullback and test the 1.3033 or at the hourly or 4 hour 200 EMA. Its the clear manipulation that will tell me when to enter the long. Of course the possibility for the short is there from the highs around 1.3082 but I want to see the stop run there to take it.
The GBP/USD has seen an even sharper push up during Asia this morning as the Euro proves to be the weaker currency. I am expecting the same sort of pullback for the long today and this pair has more potential for the long being the stronger currency. The most likely place we will se the manipulation is the 1.5296 level but with the GBP reacting more with psych levels the 1.5300 has potential too. The only level I will be considering a short are the highs at 1.5366.
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Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light during the London session today with only UK GDP figures. Expectations are for a slight improvement but I am not holding my breath on it.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to be pretty close to the same as last week however with all the other negative misses in US data lately my thoughts are there is a better chance for a surprise to the upside.
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