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August 22, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis

August 21
23:51 2014

The slight conviction on the EUR/USD did prove to be a fake out as they made the attempt at a push to the upside. They didn’t show much conviction to the upside though either. They didn’t even have the nerve to run stops above 1.3291 to hit weak holders if they do have the desire to push it further down. My thoughts are they are waiting for Janet Yellen to have her say today at the end of the Jackson Hole ordeal. Considering the Fed Minutes release some might expect that she will have the same sort of hawkish tone but that’s not the case. From what I see this morning, most believe she will have to be dovish citing the labor market in more ways than one or the risk to the stock bubble getting the big “finger poke” are very high. In all honesty the latter is most likely the case even though I would really like to believe she would do the former and do the right thing. Its going to be interesting to see.

With this in mind the probability of them having any conviction on a move before the Yellen speech are rather low. If I can manage to get a good set up well before the news I will be happy to hold it through the release as long as I can tighten up my stop to a comfortable level. The best level for the short will be 1.3288 but even though I don’t have a bias based on price I would prefer to be long holding through the news. The best place to see them hold it for a long is 1.3259 or down at yesterdays lows.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD showed stronger conviction during Asia yesterday but also couldn’t make a decent push and considering both of the pushes we do have to the downside are well beyond the ADR its best to keep an open mind on direction today. The same applies here as it does the EU regarding Jackson Hole but I expect that any Euro weakness on the Super Mario speech will mostly effect the EUR/GBP therefor limiting the move on this pair. The best level to short is yesterdays highs at 1.6600 and best long at 1.6565.

GU 1hr chartThe EUR/JPY did make the expected move to the upside yesterday although it does look rather sloppy with all the deep pullbacks along the way. I will have a small bias for the next push here but considering the move yesterday was well short of the 55+ pips we should see with a 63 pip ADR I will be cautious and need a clear entry. With this pair more attached to risk these days along with creeping up on this months high of 138.01 its going to take some hawkish tone from Yellen to get that push beyond the monthly highs. With the odds low on that I suspect they will just finish the second push this morning and hold to see what she does.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

There is literally nothing worth mentioning on the calendar until the Yellen speech and a couple hours later Draghi gets his turn. Its probably going to be a slow day until they start the babble.

Have a great weekend


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