August 29, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis
The Euro did provide us a nice short opportunity yesterday for a gain of 46 pips once it managed to reach the ADR during the NY session. My take profit was just above there at 1.3165 since I didn’t want them to have to break the ADR to get me out of the trade. Good job to the members who caught the entry as well.
Today not much is different since it couldn’t push out of the range like I would have preferred to show me some sign on direction so I wont be having a bias today. The levels have changed a little with the best short being up at 1.3216 and the best potential long at 1.3158. The 1.3185 level is still valid with the reaction it got yesterday but too aggressive to trade from without some clear signs they will be stopping it there after a push lower during the Asian session. As usual with price in a third push chop the safest entries are at the extremes of the range.
The Cable didn’t move but two thirds of its ADR yesterday remaining in the range for the week. It seems as though they are waiting for some news from the BOE in order to pick a direction for this pair. With it staying in the top half at the close for the day it does increase the probability for the break up but in order to do that it has several levels to break. Of course I will be open for either direction on this pair again but the levels are a bit more risky for the long with yesterdays low being right in the middle of the overall range. The best short opportunity is up at 1.6598 but if they do manage to show the conviction below yesterdays lows during the London session then I will be open for the short at the Asian highs or lows depending on how far the push goes after an hourly conviction candle. The only level I will consider the long is at 1.6569 with a clear set up while I watch for any conviction.
The EUR/JPY had a nice set up to the hourly 200 EMA for the short yesterday but never gave a pullback for the entry. The level was valid but more aggressive so waiting for the better entry just in case they want to run stops above Wednesdays highs is the best plan considering there wasn’t anything making direction clear. However today is a different story with now having a first long term push to the downside after seeing the reversal Wednesday. I will have a bias for the short today while open for the long against the first push but only if there is no entry short and they move to the lows showing they wont let it pass since the 136.37 is a significant daily level.
The best level for a short is at 136.78 but if there isn’t a clear entry during the Asian session this morning then there is a good chance they will push it up to 136.88 during the London session.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts early again today with German Retail Sales along with UK housing data at the beginning of the Frankfurt session. I don’t expect much from the UK housing price data since they haven’t done much to the help to buy scheme but German Retail Sales could get them moving early if it misses big. Any positive miss has potential for them to do a stop run to the upside before going down for the day for the same reason the CPI data yesterday caused a move down on Euro crosses. Later the UK has the Business Investment figures while the Euro Zone releases its CPI data a half hour later. I don’t expect much from the UK end with the bar set so low but a big disappointment has potential. Otherwise they will wait for the EZ CPI. Expectations are for a slight drop but if the monthly figures manage to drop close to or below zero the Euro will get a boost on increased probability of ECB printing.
Later the US has Personal Spending and PCE price index released at the same time. I don’t see these doing much barring a big miss since the GDP data was better than expected yesterday. Considering that they have a better chance of missing positive but I wont hold my breath on that. An hour or so later is Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected to improve a little. Since it did have a big disappointment last month this should be close so I don’t expect much from it unless it does miss big again.
Have a great weekend
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