August 8, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP,USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
With Super Mario more or less just giving slightly more lip service to going full blown QE showing that the Bundesbank is still not on board with the idea. As I said in yesterdays commentary the data from Germany will need to be consistently bad for a couple months or more before they allow the ECB to print away.
The EUR/USD did get the stop run above the false conviction but wans tradable with the news release. Today I will be open on direction again with the safest levels being at yesterdays highs or lows for an entry. The 1.3364 level is valid but carries higher risk being right smack in the middle of yesterdays range. In order to take a short from there I will need to see them push down during Asia and then run the test during London with clear trapping. Otherwise if they show conviction above I may consider the Asian lows for the long depending on how it sets up. The higher probability is that they stay in this range being the end of the week but all things considered including geopolitical events of late, if they are going to break I see a higher chance of a break down.
The GBP/USD held in a shorter range as well yesterday not really making any sort of push. I will have a slight bias for a push to the downside today even though they may just finish the second push before the weekend and hold the daily lows at 1.6802. As I was reading this morning, if there is a close below that level today it will be the first straight five weeks down the GU has had in a long time. Therefore the probability is lower since the conviction for making such a move needs to be significant. Now that they are starting the test of the lows I will see it as the second push completed and look to trade the third to the downside but would need to see them pull back to at least the 1.6835 level unless they run stops to 1.6802 and then pull back to 1.6822.
The EUR/JPY didn’t get much of a reversal and didn’t even have the conviction to make a false push to get weak holders out of the market. That’s not enough to give me a solid bias but I will prefer a short over a long today. The issue is the bottoming formation is still valid so taking a long from the lows is doable with the right set up. Otherwise what I would like to see more is price leave the Asian box at the lows and see them run the breakout traders before testing 136.48. If by chance they do show the conviction below the lows and I don’t get an entry it will run off without me unless they give a backside entry at 136.14.
Forex News Today
There isn’t any decent news on tap today other than the BOJ press conference this morning and from the looks of things they got an early start. Otherwise its likely to be a slow Friday unless we get some tape bombs. Of which there is a good possibility with all the issues the world has these days.
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