Better ISM Data Holds USD Up June 2, 2015
ISM Data Props Up USD For Now
The better than expected data from the US yesterday has abated the temporary weakness in the USD for now. However the fact that consumer spending dropped to its lowest levels since 2008 I have to admit if that continues the next release will not be so rosy.
There was also a little reported tape bomb on Greece yesterday in the form of a rumor that Greek PM Tsipras has caved in to the troika on pension reform demands. This was from Reuters via Die Welt but the fact that nobody else has been screaming deal I have my doubts there is much reality to it even though it does seem that the position of the Greek government weakens every passing day.
EUR/USD Whips First Push Down
Although the push down on the EUR/USD was well shy of the ADR of 124 pips it did manage to show the conviction below 1.0925 twice yesterday so the higher probability will be for a test down to 1.0866 or lower today. The best level to be looking for the short today is 1.0936 but I would be happier to see them widen the Asian range first. Otherwise they have a higher probility of hitting the break out traders to the Asia lows first. I will be open for the long at 1.0894 but will need enough price action to change my bias.
GBP/USD Heading To Daily Support
I remember saying last week that the GBP/USD has a ways to go before finding any daily support and sure enough it has kept up the extended pushes and is approaching it now. There is a small chance it will find some at 1.5173 but at this rate I expect it will run to 1.5100 before making any significant turn. The best level I see is at 1.5206 for the short but the proximity to current price is a little concerning. There is the chance they test up to Fridays lows if they cant widen the Asian range this morning. I will be open for the long at 1.5173 but prefer to be short.
EUR/JPY Fake Out Lower On Yen Weakness
The stop run and rejection at yesterdays lows on the EUR/JPY does show the higher probability for a push up. However I prefer to see the conviction before having a clear bias in this type of chop. I will be open on direction and prefer to see the short from 136.49 since the levels for the long are weak unless of course there is something very clear at the Asian lows during the London session. As usual any entry there is riskier so I will need more than one trap.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts with German Unemployment data. Expectations are for a drop of 10K from the unemployed list but I dont expect much from this unless it disappoints big meaning it will need to be a positive figure or at least close to zero. Later is Euro Zone CPI data expected to get above the zero mark but the way I see it the odds are against it.
The UK has construction PMI expected to rise so I will be looking for the set up on GU before the release. Considering recent disappointments in UK data my thoughts are this has a better chance to do the same.
The US only has Factory Orders expected to drop close to zero. And print below zore should be USD negative but I will only expect an sustained move on a big disappointment.
Asian session traders have Aussie GDP data along with Chinese HSBC Services PMI that could get the AUD rolling tomorrow.
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