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Continued EUR/USD Upside Expected? Forex Commentary 3/4/16

March 04
01:06 2016

Looking For Second Push Up On EUR/USD

We finally stopped the bleeding on the EUR/USD and created a first push to the upside. Earlier this week in one of the forex commentaries I discussed ‘context’ in relation to market cycle. The previous range gives us a very solid starting point for the current push up. Tomorrow I will be looking for the continued push to the upside. I do think this current push up to the upside is going to have some tough going considering the heavy momentum down. With that being said this general area was where heavy previous buying started in early February and price tends to re-test the starting point of previous moves. This re-test is the best place for a bounce if we are going to see it happen. 

The major issue with the current situation in the EUR/USD is the levels or lack there of I should say. We simply do not have any lower listed points from which I would look to take a stop run long. For those of you who are members, be sure to watch tonight’s daily market preview as I get into what I need to see happen for new level creation.

EUR/USD Chart - March 4th 2016

GBP/USD Continues Hard Rally

One of the things I have talked about since early this week was the potential cycle the upside we have been running on the GBP/USD. The main reason I did not trade this with a directional bias is because we had a very unclear starting point and a starting point is crucial as I have covered a few times this week. Wednesday was really a great illustration of the fact that even if we don’t have a cycle bias we often have the opportunity to catch the move. Before Wednesday made its push to the upside it created a stop run of our first lower level from the daily market preview (not listed in the commentary) and provided a nice full take profit trade of +4%. It is only fair to mentioned that we also had a stop run short of an upper level which resulted in a -2% loss thus resulting in a +2% day on the GBP/USD. This is by no means saying we are going to catch every move because we won’t. The main point I want to cover is the fact that cycle is NOT the reason we take an entry which is why I go into most days with an open directional bias. I know I stress this point a great deal, and I do so because selection of manipulation points and then seeing a stop run of those points is the backbone of the DTFL day trading strategy, not cycle.

For today bias remains open today as I mentioned earlier. With that point in mind we have only one upper and one lower level to start the day. We do have a great deal of open space for the creation of new levels during the day but that is something only time will tell. The one point this is coming close to being valid is yesterday’s high. If the price pushes down to the 1.4120-30 range before retesting the highs then I would add that as the first upper manipulation point from which I would look to see a valid stop run short.

GBP/USD Chart - March 4th 2016

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Forex Market News For March 4th 2016

US Non-Farm Employment Change & Average Hourly Earnings 8:30 AM Eastern: We have seen something very strange occur over the last 2 NFP releases. On very sizable deviations from the expected number we have seen the price reverse the spike. The only reason that I can think of to account for this is the conflict that Average Hourly Earnings had with the headline number. To me this still doesn’t make sense but for those who look to chase the spike on NFP I would pay close attention to Hourly Earnings as a conflict with the headline number could signal another reversal. This month NFP is expected at 195K and Average Hourly Earnings is expected at .2%



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