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Continued Selling For The GBP/USD Expected – Forex Commentary 4/4/16

April 04
01:17 2016

EUR/USD Carves Range

The EUR/USD analysis is very straight forward given the lack of current cycle. At this point we have a clearly cared out range which gives us our listed manipulation points. What is nice about these levels is they encompass the range of the market over the last two days. What this means is if the upper level breaks the entire short side of the market goes into the red and if the lower level breaks then the the short term long side of the market goes in the red. As I always say, when you put one side of the market in the red you will have a great liquidity point for any future stop run.

Changing direction, if you look at the COT data nothing has really changed and the continued gradual buying in the Euro is still valid. This goes in line with the latest break above major highs and points to the continued march up in the Euro. Keep in mind this long term buying pressure doesn’t mean you should expect a straight up move. At this point, given the current extension upward, I would actually expect some retracement before continuation.

EUR/USD Chart - April 4th 2016

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Pound Continues To Look Bearish

I’ve been bearish on the Pound for a few months and that point really doesn’t change this week. I continue to feel like the bias to the downside is the higher probability. In fact I consider Friday’s push the first push to the downside and I will be looking for the second push to the downside to start the week. Unfortunately we do not have an upper manipulation point from which to get the second push to the downside. We do currently have a level forming but it has not satisfied the criteria we lay out in the DTFL forex course. Therefore, the only option we have is a backside short off of the Friday lows if we were to see a clean break of that point to the downside. Members, be sure to watch the video daily market preview for more info on the possibility of additional levels forming and exactly what we need to see.

GBP/USD Chart - April 4th 2016

Forex Market News For April 4th 2016

UK Construction PMI 4:30 AM Eastern: Construction PMI has been a sizable spiker of the market for the last year. For this month 54.1 is the expected number. For the last 3 months the market has rapidly reversed the initial spike and push back through pre-release in the opposite direction. Going into this month I would expect that to continue to be the higher probability.

US Durable Goods m/m 10:00 AM Eastern: Lately Durable Goods has not spiked the market over 15 pips but it has within the last 6 months so I have to avoid carrying into this release for any GBP/USD trades. Even with the EUR/USD you have to use some common sense as it has been getting close to 15+ pip spikes. If your in a EUR/USD trade and -5 or -10 pips then carrying into the trade is not a wise decision. For this month Durable Good is expected at -2.8



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