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Daily Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 2, 2103

April 02
03:28 2013

The EUR/USD has defied gravity for now and has shown a push to the upside. With the markets being closed in Europe yesterday and the much worse than expected ISM figures from the US it sure seems like there is some betting on the Fed increasing the QE. Equities had a bad day while the EUR/USD broke to new recent highs. What gives the clue that this is probably in the works is the drop in equities was only over the hour of the news release and then held for the rest of the day. They wouldn’t let the S&P keep dropping in anticipation the Fed is going to do something. If not add to the monthly 85 billion then possibly hint at increasing the print fest. 

The way I will be treating this pair is a first push to the upside and looking for the second. Its true it does have the possibility of being a second push scenario considering the run up last Thursday but it is still in this large range chop and it seems their plans are being dealt with on the fly rather than having a clear plan they are sticking to, so I feel the need to be flexible. The levels I will be looking at for the long position today start with the proven support at the 1.2842 area. There is not a clear price point there so it could vary by +/- 5 pips. Its the clear manipulation I will be looking for. The next is at 1.2824 but I will only expect a push down to there if the resistance at yesterdays highs hold and we see a run back to the mid Asian range or lower. The level I will be open for a short from is the highs of the supply area at 1.2889. I should also mention that with it being NFP week there is the chance that we chop around for the next few days so I wont be looking to stay in for longer than 50 pips or so.

EUR/USD 1hr chart 4-2-2013

The GBP/USD did make a half hearted push up yesterday only moving 65 pips from the lows to the highs. I am hesitant in calling this a push and expect it to finish today and reach up close to the 1.5259 highs before a possible reversal. The GBP/USD has been trading on intraday pushes lately and this would be a good point for the reversal and a low risk high reward trade if we can get a nice stop run to the highs. There is the chance that it stop here also with the ADR tightening up as of late. As long as this topping formation holds during the Asian session today and we get the test from the Asian lows to the highs I will be open for the short with a 1 hour stop run to these highs during the London session. Preferably with some manipulation candle patterns we look for during the stop run. 

GBP/USD 1 hour chart 4-2-2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start off with Italian, French, German and EZ Manufacturing PMI data. Again the one to watch will be Germany. Expectations are for a release just above the 50 level but something seems very fishy with my news sources this morning. Forex Factory don’t even show its on the board while Forex Live (powered by Forex Pros calendar) hides the last large miss to the downside and shows the previous release was 50.3 while the actual release was a dismal 48.9. There can only be 2 possible explanations for this. 1. Either the previous figures were revised upward or 2. Something is getting manipulated to the extent that they don’t want us to see and hopefully we forgot about the previous release. Whats confusing is Forex Pros don’t print revisions like Forex Factory does and they just happened to forget to list it so far today. Hmmm.

The UK also has its Manufacturing PMI data expected to improve but still be below 50. Without a large surprise I have my doubts it will cause much movement and it would need a pop above 50 to cause anything sustainable.

The US dont have much worth noting other than Factory Orders. Its shown as a low impact event but a surprise showing there was a jump should create some USD strength. Expectations are for a rise anyway so it is likely priced in for the USD strength and will have more volatility on a miss to the downside.

Happy Trading


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