Daily Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 26, 2013
Here we are at the end of the trading week and what a crazy week it was. Having done rather well with what we had to work with I am taking today off and the family and I are headed to the beach for the weekend. I managed to get 4 trades this week (which is not the norm these days) for 116 pips so all is well that ends well. Time for a nice relaxing day and weekend away from the computer. 🙂
However for those of you chained to the charts today here is what I would be looking at as possible entries. There is still no clear direction on the EUR/USD but again is seems price action wise the jig is up on risk considering equities and the Euro anyway. Therefore I would be happiest with a short today but would surly be keeping my options open. The best level I see for a short is the 4 hour 200 EMA that price broke down from yesterday but considering its proximity to current price I would want to see price leave the Asian box around this price or lower to be confident in any manipulation I see there. The problem is there may be some desire to close the inefficient move down during the US session and it could stop anywhere in that area for the reversal down. The best potential long is at the lows of 1.2972 and above that at yesterdays lows of 1.2988. The higher level does carry more risk because of all the price action just below it to the left so make sure the manipulation is clear and confirmed for any long taken there.
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The GBP/USD had a wild run to the upside on better than expected GDP figures yesterday. Why a 0.3 GDP figure warrants a 200 pip move is beyond me but the markets are far from any sort of normalcy these days so one could run in circles trying to explain it. I guess its better than recessionary figures but I am pretty sure the margin of error is about twice that.
Anyway we do have a clean breakout and clear first push. However seeing a pullback to the 1.5366 level would be best to have before the continuation to the upside. Having said that the proximity is rather far off around 80 pips so I have my doubts it will make it there if they do intend to keep up the push. The 1.5410 daily high seems more likely but it may go as low as the psych level of 1.5400. We do have a nice topping formation at the highs also so the potential for the short seems better but the set up will need to be clear. A test that holds would be nice but a stop run to the highs would be better.
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are slow until the US session today when the US GDP figures are out. Expecting a whopping 3.0% is quite ambitious in my mind so the potential for disappointment is higher the way I see it. Either that or what I see is a misprint of expectations. Later is Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected to improve slightly but I doubt it will have much effect if the GDP figures miss substantially.
Have a great weekend
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