Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Gold July 2nd 2014
The EUR/USD didn’t quite move off and give the second push yesterday but holding a tight range gives a little hope that they will today. The probability has gone down some but we will often see this happen in the current market situation. The only difference is that today I will be a little more open for the short from a stop run to the highs or something clearly showing that they wont let it pass. Looking at the daily chart the conviction still is holding so the higher probability is a test of 1.3724 which is just below where our average daily range price is currently sitting. This coupled with potential disappointing ADP Non Farm release today gives it a good chance.
The best level for the long is 1.3674 but if they do show the hourly conviction below they will most likely run down to close the inefficient move from Monday at 1.3661 where they still could turn for a lower test running to the ADR which would be at 1.3717 or close.
The GBP/USD did make the second push as I expected and we did manage to catch the lows from 1.7098 during the London Live training session yesterday. At this point I am holding for the third push today and will just look to manage this trade rather than taking another entry. I’m sure there will be some members that took the profit at yesterdays ADR I mentioned as the safer exit in the room so if I wasn’t still in I would be looking to a test of 1.7133 as the best level to catch the third push from. What’s best about holding my position is that not only do we have the conviction above the daily level at 1.7153 but at the same time it made that, it showed the potential topping formation as null and void with the higher close above the pin. If that wasn’t the case I would be looking to exit during the London session with a test of the highs if they showed any signs of not letting it pass, therefore showing the topping formation holding for a potential failed push or range bound day like we had on the EU yesterday. Of course it would be better if it had the daily close above 1.7153 but we cant have it all our way.
I certainly have my doubts they will drop below 1.7133 but its surely possible and if they do the daily 1.7113 will be the next level to look for the long.
Gold is following the EU more recently also having the range bound day yesterday. It did hold the 1324 level very well suggesting they don’t have the cooperation for a smack down just yet so as long as the correlation holds and the EU makes its next push today then gold should follow. I also find it interesting that after the Asian session buyers got a beating the London/NY buyers pushed up making higher closes even though they seemed to get discouraged at the end of the day as well, which does leave it a bit more open for the beat down today if the buyers don’t have the gumption to make the push. I do think it will depend on if the EU can make its push or not.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a little busy today starting with housing data from the UK. If the HPI data released early does surprise to the upside showing the housing bubble gaining speed rather than losing it we will see the GBP benefit. However any fear of Osborne pulling back from the help to buy scheme would show up as a negative release and the GBP could take a hit depending on how bad the data was. The Construction PMI figures are expecting a small drop but still well above the 50 level so will need a bigger miss to the downside to get much GBP weakness while a miss to the upside wont need to be as big to get strength.
The Euro Zone is expecting Spanish Unemployment to drop but the more significant GDP figures are expected flat. The way I see it is if the GDP figures miss to the downside deflation fears will take over and the Euro will weaken, mostly against the GBP but most likely against the USD as well.
If US ADP Non Farm comes out with the expected improvement and no big miss then they will likely wait for the Janet Yellen speech a couple hours later. They will be looking to see her reiterate the taper which she will most likely do but also talk of other headwinds the US economy faces and say the Fed is always prepared as usual, even though many have proven that they never have been. Go figure.
Tomorrows Asian session traders need to keep an eye on Aussie Building Approvals and Retail Sales. The Building expectations seem a bit lofty while the Sales data is expecting a slight improvement. There is also Chinese HSBC Services PMI that would cause a decent move for the Aussie if it drops below 50.
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