Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY September 25, 2014
The EUR/USD made the push down I suspected yesterday running off the top of the right shoulder at 1.2859. For those who caught the two pin entry it paid off rather nicely. Now that we have something clean on direction I will have a bias for the short today. Since they haven’t quite tested the daily level at 1.2766 they will likely do it today. There is also a more significant daily low at 1.2753 that does have potential to hold it up but a break of that will open the door to 1.2688 daily low from 2012. The best level to catch the short today is at 1.2798 and having the psych 1.2800 just above gives it the confluence to have a good chance of holding. The only issue I have is the inefficient 30 pip move down they may want to close and run it up to 1.2815. However I have my doubts they will do that considering the way they closed the day yesterday. Since this is a first push I will have to be open for the long but it will take a lot to convince me they will turn and hold these lows.
The GBP/USD just went back into a chop on the USD strength still holding the recent lows as the EUR/GBP took a hit. I will be open on direction for this pair today just in case the EG gets hit again and it runs the opposite direction than the EU. The best level for a short is up at 1.6352 but if they intend to drop it today there is a good chance they hold it below there around the hourly 200 EMA. I will consider the long from the Asian lows if they show a good set up but will treat any entry there as aggressive because there is the two levels just below at 1.6302 and 1.6282.
The EUR/JPY did show more conviction to the downside yesterday but seems to be held up by the weak JPY as well. Right now there is a nice set up occurring during the Asian session but the level is questionable and the UJ has had a conviction close above yesterdays highs making the entry more risky to short so I will be waiting for the best entry if I am going to take it and see how it approaches the 169.67 entry level. If they push the UJ higher I will pass since the volume is telling me there isnt much interest in pushing the UJ down at the moment. Otherwise if they hold these highs and I dont get an entry this morning I will look for the entry at the Asian highs during London on the conviction. I should also say that it does have a sloppy two pushes down over the last three days but the sloppiness does concern me. I will be bias for the short but it will need help from the UJ in order to maker the push.
Forex News Today
The calendar today is slow until the NY session with US Durable Goods and Thursday Unemployment Claims. Expectations are for the Durable Goods to rise above the zero mark but with the housing data being much better than expected yesterday it has a better chance to surprise to the upside in normal conditions. However if things were normal the housing data should have disappointed considering the dismal housing starts previously so I won’t be surprised if this disappoints today. The Unemployment Claims are supposed to rise to 300k and I figure this will be close.
The Asian session tomorrow has Japanese CPI data that has a chance to get the Yen crosses moving so I will be keeping an eye on that early in the day.
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