Daily Analysis OF EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 11, 2014
With the price action on the EUR/USD yesterday being lack luster at best I expect that this push to the upside during Asia this morning will be the finishing of push number three and will expect the reversal from the 1.3700 level during London today. However with the ADR hovering right around the 1.3720 level they may just push it there before turning. Since they haven’t actually finished the push as of yet there is still the chance we can catch the long from yesterdays highs or the Asian lows this morning at 1.6339 but considering these conviction moves during the Asian session have a higher likelihood of being a fake out I will be keeping that in mind and want a rather clean set up during the London session.
I should also point out that this move from the gap lows yesterday to the high this morning is 5 pips while the ADR still hovering around 80 does potentially qualify as a push. I don’t like it and expect a bit more to test the 1.3700 but that does open the door for these Asian highs to be a potential short during London if we see the right price action clearing out the breakout traders.
On a side note I did take the EU long on the test of the backside of the Asian highs yesterday. I did close it for 44 pips when I got up this morning considering the potential for this being a fake out and finishing the push during the Asian session. The entry was slightly aggressive but had the conviction hourly close above the highs Friday then the pullback with the rather nice set of legs with the backward pin so I waited for the dip lower to give me more to go on and entered after the confirmation and doji at 1.3628. My 20 pip stop was well below the Asian lows making it much less of a target if they wanted to take any stops.
The GBP/USD is telling a different story with going into the chop yesterday and showing the potential fake out this morning unable to even show fake conviction above the highs yesterday during Asia. This adds to the probability of the first long term push being false. Therefor today I will be more open on direction and willing to take the short from a stop run to the highs. If by chance we do see the conviction above the Asian highs during the London session I will be open for the long preferably at the psych 1.6400 level but will be open to the same at the four hour 200 EMA just above at 1.6408. I should also point out that with conviction they may only pull back to the highs yesterday but the setup will need to be nice showing they wont let price dip below 1.6416.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare again today. Japanese market are closed which explains why we saw the pop on the Euro and GBP/USD this morning. With no liquidity the big boys can easily move them with much less money which also adds the probability of them being fake outs.
We will probably see some fireworks surrounding a Janet Yellen speech during the US session depending on what she says to the House Financial Services Committee. With this being her first speech anything could happen. If she says anything resembling there is no reason to stop the taper the USD will strengthen. The opposite if she shows any uncertainty that the US is maintaining its recovery. This will set a standard of sorts of how much she is willing to either blow smoke up the committees rear end or be told to “get to work” like they did Ben giving him the green light for the print fest.
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