Daily Analysis Of EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 24, 2014
We didn’t get any conviction on the EUR/USD last Friday with it moving back into the range from last week. At this point the safest trades will still be from the lows around 1.3689 for a long or 1.3772 for the short. There are a couple more levels in the middle of the range I will consider today but I will need to see the typical tricks they play forming up to add confluence due to the higher risk factor of taking entries in the middle of a range like this. The one I see as the higher probability is the long from the proven support at 1.3721. The confluence of the psych level is there along with the London/ New York overlap holding the level. With current price being only 20 pips away I will prefer to see the Asian range widen to the upside during the Asian session, hit the breakout traders during London and then do a stop run to 1.3721 in order to take the long there. There is the chance for the short at Fridays highs but with the more significant level just above if they want to run stops before a break down they will pop the 1.3772 level first so I will be extra cautious thinking of shorting from 1.3761.
The GBP/USD is still showing more signs of weakness than strength with the daily close below Thursdays lows last week. This is mainly due to weakness against the Euro with the EUR/GBP breaking to new recent highs also. Having said that its best to keep an open mind on direction today here also. I do expect the weakness to continue but the way this pair has been moving lately it will need cooperation from the EUR/GBP in order to break down. If we add in the fact that the UK needs the EG to be around .8500 so trade with Europe shows decent profit it adds to the probability for the break to the upside on that pair.
Again the higher probability trades will be from the extremes with 1.6699 best to take a short and 1.6610 for a long. Considering all things I will be open for the short at 1.6661 due to the fact that the support at the lows has been beaten so many times they have a higher probability of breaking than the highs. There is a smaller chance they stop it at around 1.6643 but in order to short there I will want to see conviction below the lows during the London session and pullback.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off today with German Ifo Business Climate. Expected to be flat at 110.6 it has a better chance of disappointing considering the negative news starting to come from Germany. After that we have CPI data from the Euro Zone. This will be the one to watch for a miss to the downside. The reason is with official inflation figures potentially dropping into negative territory it will raise fears of deflation with the ECB and they may as well start up official printing rather than just the back door LTRO style of buying bad debt from the banks. Of course this will depend on how the Bundesbank takes the news but has more probability once they start freaking out over deflation. Think Japan.
No big news from the US today.
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