Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 10, 2014
With last weeks NFP behind us having a better than expected release it seems as though the big boys more so wanted to use the data to flush out as many longs as possible before they continue running the EUR/USD to the upside. This makes the most sense to me since even though the jobs added were at 175K this number is barely enough to account for the number of people entering the US job market each month. Meaning as I have stated before they will need to be printing numbers of at least 300+K a month for an extended period of time before there will be any real recovery in the US.
Having said that the question is will this give the Fed more reason to expand the taper? Well it has a decent chance if the figures continue to get better considering it also seems that they are realizing they have no choice and this fiasco just cant go on forever. However what it can do is go on for a very long time and with everybody doing the same around the world seeing a major economy go down in flames to cause the reset goes down substantially.
The fact is the rich are still getting richer and as long as they do this will continue. Nobody will hear the music stop so to speak and exit the market to protect themselves. So what will be the catalyst now? At this point my best idea is civil unrest and with the US being about as lazy as they have ever been in history its going to take quite a bit to get them off the couch and in the streets. We will have to wait and see. On to the charts. My original thought on the EUR/USD is fake out but that’s no solid reason to have a bias for the long today. I will be keeping an open mind on direction today looking to see what happens at the highs and lows from Friday last week. If it can get a decent move to the upside during the Asian session to try and test the highs I will consider a long at the 1.3891 daily level. If it cant then the best place for the long is 1.3851. In order to short from the highs I will want to see the topping formation and retest with a stop run get an entry as close to the highs as possible. The GBP/USD is a little clearer with the attempt to make the third push on Friday showing a topping formation to Thursdays highs. I will have the small bias for the reversal today but the problem is the best level to see the short from right now is Thursdays highs that is more than I like for distance away from current price. It does have the intraday push down at the end of the day last Friday but could also be a fake out before they run up. Therefore I will be keeping an open mind for the long from 1.6708 but prefer to see them widen the Asian range to the downside and run stops above the Asian session highs during the London session for the short.
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The calendar is rather void of any significant releases today so we may not see much volatility. For those who trade the Asian session tomorrow should keep an eye out for the BOJ Press conference.
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