Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 6, 2013
As I look at the price action on the EUR/USD yesterday I can see a clear intraday push to the upside but I have to admit I don’t like it at all. Still holding in a 65 pip range for the day doesn’t convince me that there is any real conviction in the push up. Since we do have Super Mario tomorrow it wouldn’t surprise me if we see the chop again today with a move higher to test the 1.3100 level and that would agree with the first push up so I will be keeping an open mind on direction today.
Since we do have some quick movement to the upside already during the Asian session if this high from yesterday holds (which I expect) then I will be open for a short on a stop run above the 1.3074 level. If it does manage to break and close above that early on the test of 1.3100 is more likely but where we get the manipulation for a long position is unclear. The best place would be the 1.3040 level at the Asian lows but with that being rather far away its a little doubtful. The 1.3051 level looks a little more promising but the manipulation will need to be rather clear since there are other levels within close proximity they will test if they cant get orders stacked they way they want. To be honest I would prefer the stop run for the short today but that will need to be pretty clear too since its against a first intraday push up. I should also mention that this pair is also testing the daily 200 EMA from the bottom side which does give a little more reason to the short but I will still be keeping an open mind.
The GBP/USD seems a little more clear on direction even though its been rather sloppy on pushes. The way I look at it is the inefficient move from Friday has been fully closed and the daily chart shows some clear rejection at the 1.5180 level and a push down for over 100 pips. Right now it has tested the break out level showing the resistance is there so a short from the Asian highs today has a good chance. Of course I would prefer to see the stop run during the London session but with some good clear manipulation and a good price I will be willing to take the short around the 1.5146 level. I will also be keeping an eye on the potential move to the hourly 200 EMA for the short but the Asian highs look pretty good right now.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is light today with a BOE King speech early on during the London session. I expect more dovish talk which will add to the potential downside for the GBP. I cant see him saying anything about stopping the Asset Purchases but more than likely the room to add to them again.
The Euro Zone has their GDP figures expected to be flat at 0.6% and I expect this to be close or a slight miss downwards. more than likely a non event without a large miss.
The US had ADP Non Farm figures expected at 170K. With it coming in closer to last months release of Friday non farm it may get more attention so a miss to the downside will be USD negative and the opposite for a positive figure. There is also the Beige Book late in the day so keep that in mind if you are holding a trade through the US session. This is usually a non event but if there are dramatic changes it has been a market mover in the past.
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