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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 2nd 2014

April 02
04:18 2014

With the EUR/USD moving more so on intraday pushes recently I have to assume that the probability of this continuing for the time being is higher than the big boys having enough conviction to run the long term pushes they usually do. As you can see on the chart below the intraday pushes from the lows are rather clear. They run over a three day time period and we see that they make the push, consolidate then push again topping out at the 1.3814 level. The issue I have is that the only one that makes the run close to the average daily range for this pair is the second push. Otherwise this three push move fulfills the requirements in most all other aspects. Having said that the intraday pushes are less reliable when building a bias on direction.

With the long term pushes having higher probability I will need to be cautious and somewhat open on direction today but if they do keep this sort of movement going we should see a reversal today. The best level to see the manipulation for that reversal is at yesterdays highs of 1.3814 but there are also a couple levels just above at 1.3826 and 1.3844 they could push to before any turn happens. The hourly and four hour 200 EMAs both will be potential long opportunities today as well. The respect that both have been getting as of late make them better as they correspond with good price turns or breakouts. The better one right now is the four hour because of the close proximity to current price of the hourly 200 but since hourly held well after the break during the NY/London overlap yesterday, if they can make a run at the highs during the Asian session and pullback in the London session I will be open for the entry there with a clear set up.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD did get the reversal yesterday after the large disappointment in their Manufacturing PMI data. At this point we have the reversal but without any conviction below Mondays lows and preferably Fridays lows as well, then they may just be flushing out weak longs before the next push upwards. Therefore I will be open on direction today on this pair. The best level for a short and continuation of this intra-day push down is 1.6651 considering it is 30 pips from the Asian lows right now. Otherwise if they are going to push it back up the 1.6620 level has good probability. However with its close proximity to current price we need to see them run it up first during Asia. The best level for a long is the 1.6600 psych level at the low of what clarifies the third long term push. This is also where the hourly 200 EMA sits giving the level quite a bit of confluence and where I would prefer to take a long position today.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only significant news during the London session today is UK Construction PMI and Euro Zone GDP figures. The housing data should be close to expected considering the program they have in the UK and will need a big miss to the downside to make sure we get another intra-day push down. Otherwise if its better than expected it will show the pushing out of tweak holders yesterday and push up since most likely they had that news in their hands long ago. The GDP data is expected flat and will need a sizable miss to create any Euro strength or weakness. A disappointment below zero would be enough to make the EU drop.

The US has ADP Non farm Payroll expected to add 66k more jobs than last month but with this release and Friday NFP data hardly being close much lately with last month being the best in a while. This has less impact but a large miss always bumps the EU and GU around. If it does come out as expected or higher then we should see some USD strength. However the way I see it is a smaller disappointment has a higher chance of making the USD weak.

For the Asian session traders there is Aussie Retail Sales tomorrow morning to watch out for along with Chinese HSBC Services PMI a bit later. These will have more impact on the AUD rather than the Yen crosses but could effect risk which will bleed into the Yen crosses as well.

Happy Trading


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