Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 1st 2014
Happy April Fools day everybody. I seem to remember that every time April fools comes around the big boys try and throw us for a loop and do a rather large fake out on this day every year. Im joking of course because in reality they are trying to do that to us every single trading day of the year so essentially its April fools day for us eternally. 🙂
The EUR/USD showed us the first push to the upside now showing that the push last week was false and therefor I will have the bias for the second push today. With the way they have been pushing this pair around lately I will be open for the short from the highs around 1.3805 also. My issue is I can find three intraday pushes down before this reversal but they were all short of the most probable movement. So they could also do the same here and run the three intraday pushes to test the highs around 1.3846 and turn it back.
The EZ CPI data was slightly worse than expected, the only reason I mention this is that should have not sparked the move and only explains that either the big boys were expecting much worse and as movement developed the bump was fully retraced. The other possibility is there were some algos that went haywire that had to be shut down after the 73 pip hourly candle afterwards. My thoughts are it was probably a little of both.
Our best levels for the long today are 1.3762 where we have the gap open yesterday along with the test late during the London session. However with its close proximity to current price I will want to see them run it up during Asia to at least make the run to the hourly 200 EMA. If they cant manage to widen the range at least that much they have a good chance of testing lower to 1.3745. As for any potential short entry I will need to see them hold price close to where it is now during the Asian session or at least leave the box at its lows then test up to the 1.380 psych level and show me they wont let it pass and close above as they eat up any orders. I will be careful and need a good entry watching for any conviction to the upside to minimize a hit if they do run it up. Having said that I would much prefer to already be long expecting the break upward.
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The GBP/USD made what looks to be a cleaner third push yesterday but having done it over two days leaves some doubt as to whether we will see a reversal coupled with the lack of any sort of topping formation along with a daily close above Fridays highs the best probability looks to be the long today treating this as a first push upward. The levels for the long are tight where they have better probability starting at 1.6626 if they cant hold here and run price up during the Asian session. I will also be keeping in mind the 1.6620 level this pair likes to turn on so much so a stop run to 1.6626 is preferred but there is the chance they test lower.
The 1.6653 level has its best probability if it holds here and they run the London breakout traders to the highs first before they come down to test the Asian lows. I will be open for the short from the overall highs but will need something really clear to take the entry from. When I look at the daily chart there is not much to keep it from testing up to the next significant level at 1.6717 so if I manage to catch the long today I will be looking to take profits just below that level.
Forex News Today
Today the calendar starts off with Manufacturing PMI data from the big four European countries and the EZ as a whole. The best chance we have for some manipulation and move will be the German figures as usual but if we do get surprises in the same direction on two or more of the others then we could get the beginning then too. Seeing positive misses should cause Euro strength and the opposite for some weakness.
The UK also has Manufacturing PMI expected to drop slightly. Barring a big miss in either direction probability is low we will get much more than manipulation from this event. Having said that considering all the positive data coming from the UK as of late the chance of a miss to the upside is greater than a disappointment.
The US has its ISM Manufacturing PMI data expected to improve and if it does it will keep the potential for keeping the taper going. Having said that the comments from Yellen yesterday shows she is still focused on employment rather than good data on the Fed purchases while at the same time she will have to keep the taper going as data improves. That also means considering jobs she will be maintaining low interest rates for some time to try and get people back into jobs. To be honest my thoughts are the Fed is so far removed from what and how the economy creates jobs its really only wishful thinking just like Bernanke. It seems rather obvious to me that the employment mandate of the Fed is farcical considering in the 5yrs of extraordinary measures there has been only stagnant job growth. Hmmm go figure.
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