Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 29, 2013
As I look at the charts this Monday morning I can surely say I didn’t miss much by taking Friday off. The EUR/USD only popped out of the Asian range once to the downside before moving up and closing the day in the upper part of the range. Now we have a gap to the upside this morning that has already filled and are seeing the support on the hourly chart kick in. There is nothing telling me they are any more convinced on direction than they were over the last 3 weeks and considering we are at the end of the month that is unlikely to change in the next two days. Therefore I wont be expecting significant moves today or tomorrow.
Since we still have no bias on direction the levels that have had the most reaction in recent days will be where I look to see clear manipulation. Right now the levels are the hourly and 4 hour 200 EMAs. Notice all the hourly pins around these two areas and you will understand what I mean. At this point with the candle patterns starting to form during Asia at the lows and the price action we have seen so far I will most likely have a small bias for the long position at the London session today as long as these Asian lows hold. Seeing the London boys agree with that and either do a stop run below or another clear set of patterns during London will be enough to get me long with a good entry. It will have to be clear due to the fact there is the potential for a test of Fridays lows and nothing all that substantial in between to stop the test if that’s what they have in mind.
The potential for the short is there also but the levels are not all that great. The first being the Asian highs today and then the highs Thursday last week around the psych 1.3100 level. I will be cautious about shorting on a stop run above the Asian highs today and as long as the price action agrees will be looking to see them play the breakout traders then run them out and make a 50 or so pip push to the upside.
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The GBP/USD did not share in the gap this morning telling us the move in the Euro had more to do with the EUR/GBP than the USD but that may be of no consequence today. The GU seems set to make another push to the upside having negated the potential topping formation it made Thursday after the 200 pip run up. With the Asian range tight so far today the best level I see for a long position is 1.5469. Otherwise if we do see it widen up to at lest 35 pips during the Asian session then the 80 level just above may see the manipulation since it has already held up rather well this morning. I will still be open for a short but in order to have much confidence in it I will want to see the current range hold and get a stop run to the highs during London. Preferably after seeing them play the breakout traders to the lows first.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with an Italian 10yr auction scheduled tentatively so the release could be any time. I have my doubts this will be an event as most of these have gone well lately and nothing tells me otherwise. However there could be a surprise so watch out for that. Later is the German CPI figures and again I doubt this will be market moving barring a big surprise upward.
The US has its Pending Home Sales expected to get into positive territory. If it can manage a surprise to the upside there could be some movement but my thoughts are it would need to be substantial in order to create a sustained move. This would be USD positive as any real recovery in housing will give the US a chance of digging out of its hole. Having sad that I do think these figures are manipulated and although housing is recovering in some areas of the US its mainly in affluent areas of the country and in order to create a sustained US recovery the middle class (or better yet whats left of it) needs to feel they should be buying houses instead of renting which is what a substantial number are doing these days. Having said that the market will most likely react in a nutty fashion as it always does and we will trade the manipulation as usual.
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