Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 19, 2013
As I look at the EUR/USD this morning not a thing has changed of bias for direction. It doesn’t surprise me since the US market was closed for Presidents Day which I was unaware of. Most often my news sources inform me of such things but I have to admit my most trusted source has been letting me down lately. Which is why I have expanded what I use recently as most members know. Anyway I admit I was a little upset to find out about the holiday from our members. I guess that is one of the trade offs to moving to the Philippines.
At this point the EUR/USD has formed a triangle over the last two trading sessions. Not that we are chart pattern traders but we all know it has to break out of this sometime and getting clues to what the smart money is doing as they manipulate these pattern traders can be difficult at times. Using price action alone my thoughts are they will break it to the downside and I will explain what I mean to members today in the live room session. There just isn’t enough room to explain it all here.
The levels I will be watching for the manipulation start with the Asian high today of 1.3365. This is a resistance level that has been respected for well over a day and will be a high probability level today. A clear stop run beyond there with some manipulation candle patterns we look for will be enough to get me short. If that cant hold then yesterdays highs of 1.3379 will be the next level to look at. I should also mention the 4 hour 200 has potential but will depend on where price leaves the Asian box. An entry there will need to be very clear and I will wait for the best entry possible.
Im not totally disregarding the potential long today but will want to see a clear stop run below yesterdays lows of 1.3320 to consider it. Any entry there will be aggressive in nature because of the levels right behind it at 1.3314 and 1.3304 so I be cautious and want a really good entry. Preferably with my stop below 1.3300.
The GBP/USD is in a similar situation having made a clear attempt at the daily lows of 1.5455 but was rejected well. It did have the hourly close below Fridays lows however the pin bars to the left leave the conviction in question to say the least. I would be much happier to see the daily close below the 1.5455 to consider that conviction. In other words it has potential to be a fake out so we will have to see what it does during London today to get a clearer picture of what they intend. The hourly close below yesterdays lows of 1.5435 will tell the story. Having said that there are really only aggressive opportunities for the short below yesterdays high of 1.5506. The first level being the Asian highs at 1.5478 and the next around the 1.5490 area. Just be careful and be patient for a good entry close to the top of a set of candle patterns to enter at these levels. As with the Euro I’m not disregarding the potential long but want a clear 1 hour stop run to yesterdays lows and I will be watching close for the close below.
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Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light today with ZEW Economic Sentiment from both Germany and the Euro Zone as a whole. Both are expected to improve substantially (only God knows why) to 35 from 31 respectively. My thoughts are these are primed for a disappointment but I guess we never actually know so be aware of the release time and watch out. A miss to the downside will be Euro negative while just a print of whats expected could cause a Euro rise. My thoughts are it will just be used to manipulate but will depend on if there is a surprise to the upside as to how much.
The UK and US have no significant releases today.
Its been awhile since I posted a video from Charles Biderman from Trim Tabs. In this video he describes how fake money just cant create a recovery. Then again who would believe such malarkey other than the elites who most likely just want us to believe it. My analogy would be lets just all drag out our Monopoly games and declare we are the bank and use the money to purchase what ever we need and want. Is what the central banks around the world doing anything different? I think not. Enjoy
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