Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 5, 2013
As Sterling and I were discussing my commentary after it was posted yesterday he glanced at the the EUR/USD chart and says “that is a classic exhaustion move. The Euro is going down” I couldnt agree more. Its not something I personally look for since these happen when I am in bed sleeping but for those who trade the New York session it can be a simple way to make some pips when this happens. To see exactly what he was talking about you can check out the article he wrote on this called End of Day Forex system.
Now we finally got our reversal on the EUR/USD yesterday for a nice 200 pip drop from the highs. It also has a clean 3 intraday push down coming into the hourly 200 EMA. Again today my bias will be to the downside. I have to admit I dont like the length of the move since it fits all the criteria for a potential reversal except the time factor which is why I think it may have a deeper pullback before the next move down.
The levels I will be watching today are the hourly 200EMA to begin with. I would like to see some hourly closes below this that will build a stronger bias for the short today. Then the 1.3540 or possibly the Asian highs depending on how Asia plays out today. If it can hold a small range and play the breakout traders it may not make it to 1.3540. If we do see it pop up and try to retrace some of the move yesterday it has potential to reach the 1.3572 level before it turns. To be honest I have my doubts but the possibility is there. I wont be discounting a potential long position but it will take some convincing to get me bias for a long position today.
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The GBP/USD is in a tricky position today. Having a first push up and testing within a few pips of the 1.5772 level I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. The bias on this pair is slightly to the upside today considering this but I am also open for a short if we get a 1 hour stop run to yesterdays highs of 1.5769. The levels I will be looking at for along are the Asian lows this morning of 1.5741 or just below around the 1.5720 area. I will also be watching the Asian session for any manipulation candle patterns showing me they wont let price move past a certain point in one direction. Right now the break out level of 1.5747 seems to be holding well but we will have to wait and see how price action is at the end of the Asian box.
Forex News Today
The Euro Zone only has Retail Sales today and expected to drop but I doubt this will be what the market is looking at today. Considering the Italian banking scandal is finally having some impact on the markets if there are any new developments that will be a driver today.
The UK has their Services PMI figures expected to creep up close to the 50 expansion level. If we do get the surprise jump above 50 it will at least temporarily be GBP positive. The UK economy really isnt doing well at all with thoughts of adding more Asset Purchases by former members of the BOE but the GBP could turn into the least ugly kid on the block and gain some strength. However mostly against the Euro the way I see it.
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