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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 16, 2014

January 16
03:46 2014

I am sorry for missing yesterdays commentary everyone. Unfortunately my home internet is still down and not expected to be back until tomorrow so I will have to cancel today’s live London training session. Right now I am doing today’s commentary from a local internet cafe which is why there will be no charts included in the analysis. I do apologize for the inconvenience but even my backup internet does not stay connected enough due to our location. They did say I should be back up tomorrow so hopefully that is the case.

The EUR/USD has a first push down after seeing a push up and chop for a couple days so I have a bias for the next move down today. The best level to take the short is 1.3627 but with the move up during Asia this morning, if it don’t stop there they will likely test above at 1.3644 before a move down. Being the first push down I will be open for the long but there will need to be clear trapping around 1.3588 to change the small short bias. There is a decent bottoming formation down there with price action during Asia this morning but that alone is not enough to change the short bias.

The GBP/USD has a second push down so I will be bias for the short here today also. With the close proximity to the best level of 1.6377 if there is some conviction to the upside during the London session it will likely test up to the 1.6400 psych level before they move it off. What I would prefer to see is the current level hold and move down leaving the Asian box closer to the lows before they test 1.6377 but if the trapping is very clear the entry is valid with the Asian box around 30 pips already.

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Forex News Today

The calendar has CPI data from the Euro Zone along with Germany. Expectations are for low figures so these will most likely be a non event barring a big surprise which I doubt will happen.

The US also has CPI data which is also expected to be below 1%. The kicker here is if it does surprise negative and goes into negative territory. If that does happen the Fed will be backed into a corner. They will either have to start letting interest rates rise or admit that their inflation data dont show the true inflation we already have. Below is a good Max KJeiser episode that explains the inflation that is truly there today. Not that most of you dont see it already but an interesting clip with the guest being the recent financial adviser to the president.

There is also Thursday Unemployment figures that could be used to manipulate during the NY session and a Ben Bernanke speech later in the day. I have my doubts the speech will have much impact due to it being titled “The Fed Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow” but if he does answer questions after then that could change.

Happy Trading


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