Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 30, 2013
We finally got the third push on the EUR/USD yesterday. I have to admit its shy of the 90 pips we are looking to see with a 100+ pip average daily range but with the psych level of 1.3500 just above it makes sense that they will not let it get above the level. Today the probability for the reversal is higher but I want to see a clear stop run above the highs to take a short entry. That would at least finish out the 90 pips on the third push and give us a chance to see if they intend to go into an extended push if we see the hourly close above the 1.3500 level during the London session.
I will be open for a long position but it will have to be rather clear on the set up. The break out level of 1.3460 is a plausible place to see the manipulation but the preferred place to take a 3rd push chop trade is the lows yesterday at 1.3412. If we do get the hourly close above 1.3500 I will want to see clear manipulation at the Asian lows or break out level of 1.3477.
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The price action on the GBP/USD shows that they were most likely pushing the long term intraday pushes from the highs on January 23rd and now has a first push up. Of course we can trade against this with a clear stop run to the highs but the probability is for the long position today. Right now it has made a nice Asian low around the breakout level of 1.5739 which is where I will first be looking to see the manipulation for the long. Otherwise if that level fails the next one down is 1.5709.
Forex News Today
The calendar is busy with a bunch of low impact news events but there are a few big ones also. Starting with an Italian 10 year bond auction. If this manages to go off well it has potential to cause the Euro to break into an extended push situation.
The UK dont have any worth noting. Lending to Individuals could create some manipulation with a large miss but I have my doubts.
The US has a few big ones starting with ADP Non Farm Payroll expected to drop from last release closer to the levels of the big NFP figures so my thoughts are the GDP data shortly after will be the one watched closer since its expected to be low at 1.1%. If we get a disappointment to the downside of course it will be USD negative. A surprise upward ,which is unlikely, we will get some USD strength. Later in the day is the FOMC Interest rate decision and statement. The statement will be the one watched most for any clues to stopping or adding to the print fest so watch out for that if you are in a trade.
How About a Rick Santelli Rant
Enjoy this little clip with Rick telling us just how messy any Fed exit will be. I started laughing when he broke out the tooth paste tube.
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