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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 30th 2014

January 30
02:46 2014

We did not get the next token taper from the Fed yesterday that many were expecting. They did agree to do the next token at the next meeting as long as the US economy keeps improving. I wonder if they are finally seeing that the economy only looks to be improving due to the fudged data and rising stock market. Of which the latter has recently dropped below its 50 day moving average, testing and holding below. For many of the analysts I read this is the line in the sand so to speak that will trigger the real correction. The question is will the Fed let that happen? I have my doubts but you never know, they may have actually pulled their head out however unlikely that is. Time will tell and like my mother always told me, pay more attention to what people do rather than what they say. In other words the agreement to do the token taper at the next meeting could easily be derailed if stocks do keep falling, of which is likely since what has kept them up is the Fed print fest. On to the charts.

The EUR/USD made another push down with a nice bottoming formation at the 200 EMAs so I will be having the bias for the reversal today making a first push up from the third push chop. Having said that there is still the possibility they will keep pushing down since price has already moved off the lows over 70 pips. The levels haven’t changed as far as the best price to see the manipulation but with the confluence of the EMAs above 1.3634 and the daily level below the price action we look for may happen anywhere in that range so I will just be a little more particular for the cleanliness of it if its at the higher levels for the long. I will be open for the short but will need to see some typical patterns either playing the Asian range or sowing they wont let price pass 1.3673 or preferably 1.3684.  

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had similar price action to the Euro but made no conviction move in either direction so keeping an open mind on this pair is best today. I will say it has an intraday push making a lower low but using that for determining a bias is not a good idea since its holding like a bottoming formation also. If they do keep trading correlated then if the EU reverses so will the GU. The wild card is the Eur/Gbp and if it goes on a tear all bets are off for the GU. The best level I see for the short is 1.6585 with it being about 36 pips from the current Asian lows. Otherwise they may test 1.6600 again. If the correlation holds up and both pairs move up then 1.3635 has the best confluence with the hourly 200 just below but if they hold the current Asian lows and run up during the Asian session then 1.6546 has good potential for the manipulation going north.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is light today with only unemployment data from Germany that shouldn’t do much barring a big miss. Otherwise there is also an Italian 10yr bond auction but even though its marked as high impact the chance of it going badly is low but possible.

Later in the day the US session starts off with its Thursday Unemployment Claims coming out the same time as GDP figures. As usual a big miss on either of these will have some impact but it will depend on the direction of the misses. If they go opposite with one bad and other good I expect the GDP figures will trump Unemployment. It will depend how big the deviations are. Toward of the end of the US session is Pending Home Sales expected to drop significantly and considering all the bad housing data of late has more of a chance to disappoint or be close to expected.

Happy Trading


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  1. john
    john January 30, 05:39

    Hi Chad I am confused, I thought that were was an additional $10 billion reduction in the monthly QE.



    Reply to this comment
    • Chad Tell
      Chad Tell Author February 01, 03:29

      Hi John

      You are correct. My bad, I had to go back and double check and I read it wrong. I might need to get a pair of glasses LOL

      Thanks for the heads up.


      Reply to this comment

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