Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis June 11, 2013
Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD this morning its clear why we are always a little skeptical about first pushes that don’t clearly make an hourly close beyond the third push chop. We did see the bounce off Fridays lows holding price up and moving off to test Fridays highs. At this point direction is even less clear so the same remains for caution and needing a clear set up during the London session today. Since the Asian market is tight this morning I would be most happy seeing it widen and test 1.3241 and do the stop run to the proven support at 1.3227 during the London session for a long position. Otherwise for a short, seeing the stop run above yesterdays highs at 1.3267 will be considered but I will want a good entry with two daily levels just behind. I will want to either see Asia test it and get rejected or widen up the range to around 35 pips before the stop run above it.
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The GBP/USD is in the same position with no clear direction and I didn’t even have to move my lines for the levels I will be watching. If the support at the breakout level holds during the Asian session I will consider a long form 1.5559 but would prefer to see the Asian range widen up and see an hourly close above yesterdays highs to consider it a high probability level. Otherwise I will consider a short with a clear stop run above the 1.5605 area but will be watching for the hourly close above 1.5617. If that happens during the London session I will be bias for the long and look to trade any manipulation on the pullback.
Forex News Today
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The news starts off with the BOJ news conference at the same time the London Live session starts today so the Yen crosses should be interesting then. As usual the big boys and their algos will be looking to see if they are showing less confidence in their print fest which I highly doubt. There is the chance they will say something negative with their bond and stock markets kind of going berserk these days but they really have no other choice since they are totally out of ammo otherwise. Fun. Fun.
The UK has its Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures expected to be in negative territory. I have my doubts these will cause much movement with the UK being a service based economy but with a large miss in either direction there may be thoughts of it effecting Asset Purchases in the future so keep an eye out for that. They also have their NIESR GDP estimate late in the day so if your in a trade on the GU then watch for a miss there or exit if your stop is not at break even yet.
Nothing of note from the US today.
Words of wisdom from Ron Paul
I listened to this webcast form Chris Martensen interviewing Ron Paul yesterday and thought it would be a good idea to share it with you. Of course he feels as most of us do. The system is so flawed that it simply wont last forever. Come to find out he also is in the same camp of thinking how amazing it is it lasted this long. Giving reference to how much more we will see he says we will see much more printing until the world rejects the USD. I couldn’t agree more. With the status quo being propped up at any cost we could see this go on for years to come. Well worth the listen. Enjoy
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