Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis May 29, 2013
The price action we saw on the EUR/USD yesterday after the nice hourly conviction candle during the Asian session is precisely why its hard to trust any conviction we see during the Asian session. There was an aggressive entry with a very nice manipulation pattern just before the Frankfurt open but I passed on it due to the time of day. Even if I did take the trade I would have been stopped out break even. The conviction was true but the big boys during the London session wanted to clear them out of the market before the push so they pushed price a bit higher than the daily open before they made the move. I did see some members in the Skype group caught the second move down and even though there was some decent manipulation at the highs it was too aggressive for me to enter since it was just before the New York open. Nice trade for those who caught the 80+ pip move as long as you know the risks and accept them it was a good entry. Just a little too aggressive for me.
Today I will be looking for the next push down. Since price is finding support at the break out level from last Thursday during the Asian session now the potential for a pullback to 1.2878 is likely and as deep as 1.2894 is possible. As long as the Asian session don’t make the test upwards and price leave the Asian box at it highs the probability of the deeper pullback goes down. There is a slight possibility for a long being what I see as a first push situation but the manipulation at the lows will need to be very clear. The daily level we see to the left is not as significant as the one behind it at 1.2796 or the major daily low at 1.2753. However being a daily level it may just hold.
The GBP/USD had pretty much the same movement but had a nice 1 hour stop run just before the New York session opened. That was a beautiful entry but as with the Euro was the wrong time of day. There was enough screaming at me to enter after the nice set of legs but at that time of day I really want a good entry and it never pulled back enough for a safe enough entry for me considering New York was just opening. I thought they would at least attempt a test of the highs that never came. On to the next trade.
Here I will be looking for the next push down also. However the levels for the potential manipulation points aren’t that good. The 1.5065 has the best probability but there is potential for a reaction at either 1.5037 or 1.5048 levels also but I don’t like the close proximity right now. What would be the best scenario would be to see an hourly close below the daily level of 1.5012 and trade the manipulation at either the Asian highs or just above. Once it does get below the 1.5000 level it has a ways to go before the next good support. Of course there is a small chance for the long position if they wont let that break but since they have been hammering this level several times it has a better chance of breaking this time.
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Forex News Today
High impact events are light again today but there are a couple medium impact ones that could be used for manipulation on a large miss. They start with German Unemployment figures. The rate is expected to be flat while the change expected to add 1K to the unemployed. Without a large miss these will probably a non event. Later is the German CPI data and with inflation being ignored and expectations well below 2% this too has little chance for creating a decent move.
Later in the US session there is a Fed member speaking so there may be some volatility around the speech depending on what he says.
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