Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis October 23rd 2013
Holy cow Goldman was correct! Investors didn’t get Stolpered for once. I guess even a broken watch is right twice a day.
We now have a fist push to the upside on the EUR/USD with a nice 130+ pip move yesterday. Of course it took a very large miss on Non Farm Payroll. The improvement in the US Unemployment Rate to 7.2% was pretty much ignored since even Ben has admitted that it means nothing. The bad NFP was all they needed to solidify that the potential for the Fed tapering is down the tubes while increasing the chance of Janet Yellen making Helicopter Ben look like Santa Clause as she will most likely increase the Fed purchases exponentially in the near future to protect the big boys yet again. It will be like Christmas every day for them, for a while anyway. I wonder if they will ever get it. I can only imagine what the US will look like when they are done and all this blows up in their face. For some reason I have thoughts of what happened during the French revolution and a lot of people paying for the mess with their lives. The tragic part is that many innocent folks will go with them. On to the charts
Today I will have the bias for the second pus upward but still keeping my mind open for the short preferably with a stop run to the highs. There are two daily levels it is likely to test above at 1.3828 and 1.3857. The problem here is that there are no decent levels below that they have potential to manipulate at. Therefor I will consider the Asian lows but with the tight range so far I will need to see them play the breakout traders first. Otherwise if the lows break it may run all the way to 1.3708 before it turns. I should also say that with no continuation of what looks like solid conviction yesterday the chance for the pullback increases so if we see solid manipulation at the highs I will consider the short without a stop run.
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The GBP/USD had the same first push up and looks to be in a better situation for the continuation considering the fake out to the lows yesterday. The levels to take the long from are better on this pair and the daily level is holding well at the Asian lows right now so if we do get a push above the highs I will consider first on a pullback during the London session. If that don’t hold the psych 1.6200 looks good but the 1.6180 level looks better being it is a daily high. The next daily level its likely to test is at 16300. There is the 1.6259 just above price at the moment also but the proximity is too close if they really have conviction in the up move. I will be open for the short here too but I want to see this high hold during Asia and either have the stop run there or at 1.6259. the hourly close wont be used as conviction to the upside unless it closes beyond 1.6259.
Forex News Today
The only release of note today is the BOE Meeting Minutes. This has potential to throw in some GBP weakness depending on if there was any talk of them increasing their asset purchases also. I have my doubts they did but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. The facts are they are getting a rise in house prices (even though its just another bubble pumped by Osborne) so things may look a little rosier than they really are and they don’t see the need. Just be careful if you are in a position before the release and if I am long I hope to have my stop to break even before. Otherwise if there is any negative sentiment from the release I will look to go long after the pullback. I doubt any talk at this time will dissuade the potential for the USD weakness as every one knows the US will most likely print its way into oblivion.
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