Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis September 11th 2013
The EUR/USD did not make the third push yesterday but it also didn’t show us the failed second push so the probability is still there that we will get it today. It is slightly lower but until they hold this chop through London I will be expecting to see that they will at least make the attempt. Since now we have the war drums getting quitter again the USD strength on that will not be as high but I will also say that there are plenty of other reasons why we may see the USD strength in coming days.
We did take the long on this pair during the London live session yesterday but the darn thing couldn’t make the shift within 3 hours of the first sign of manipulation so I did end up closing my position with a 2 pip loss as I know most other members did too. It never did dip low enough to hit my full stop level but it wasn’t worth taking the chance of getting caught up in a stop run during the US session. On top of that even though they wouldn’t have gotten me they surely would have got some members who didn’t get as good of an entry as I did. I hope you guys got out before taking the full hit.
The best levels I see for the long today start at the 1.3250 we were looking at yesterday but with it being violated like it was yesterday I would rather see price hit the 4hr 200EMA since it seems that is what got the most respect. Otherwise it may dip as low as 1.3229 before they make the push today. What would be best is to see the conviction during the London session and then dip back and give clear trapping at the Asian lows or 1.3250. I’m not totally discounting the possibility for the short but it will need to be screaming that they wont let it get higher than yesterdays highs before I decide on changing my bias.
The GBP/USD did make a nice attempt at the third push showing some conviction during the US pump at the end of the day yesterday. I will be expecting to see it at least finish that push today since the move was a mere 60 pips. The two best scenarios I see will be they hold it in the range during Asia this morning then run it to the 1.5715 level before they make the push or the other is we get the conviction above yesterdays highs during London and then test the Asian lows this morning. If I do get the entry on this pair I will most likely just take a 40-50 pip profit due to this being the finishing off of the third push. The only way I will hold is if there are clear signals they intend to keep the run up going and I am at my desk watching.
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Forex News Today
The economic calendar is light again today with just a few releases of note. There is the German CPI figures but this has been a non event for the most part lately so I don’t expect that to change.
The UK has their Unemployment data and rate release today but barring a large miss I doubt this will have much effect other than some reason to manipulate.
Later in the day there is a US 10yr note auction and I expect more of the same for this one also. There is the slight chance that it starts to show clues of less appetite for US debt because we are getting close to the 0 hour on the debt ceiling. The US has already been using funny accounting for weeks now in order to pay their bills. I was just reading this morning that thy will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat by October 18 at the earliest or November 5 at the latest. What strikes me as weird is we haven’t seen anybody discussing the issue as of yet in congress so things could change pretty quick when we do start to see the same bickering as last year. Eventually they will have no choice but to raise the ceiling again which may mean another downgrade by the credit agencies producing a rise in rates and possibly more running for the doors getting out of US paper, further pushing rates up and the USD will tank. Its going to be an interesting couple months ahead even if they don’t attack Syria.
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