Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary March 27, 2013
My apologies for the short commentary this morning. I had an appointment this morning and got a late start.
The EUR/USD is showing signs of going into a chop but after a 200+ pip move that don’t surprise me. At this point its best to trade the manipulation to the highs or lows. With a 57 pip range holding for almost a day and a half being comfortable on directional bias is questionable without at least a lower close yesterday. Of course I would prefer a stop run to the highs for the short but will also be considering the same to the lows for a long today.
The issue is with equities gaining back all their losses from Monday if they decide to keep pushing them up the Euro will benefit somewhat although the way they were separated yesterday doe give me some thoughts of the possibility of the markets getting back to normal but I am not holding my breath. We will see
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The GBP/USD looks to have a short second push but I am not that convinced of the conviction to the downside with it only having a small hourly close below Mondays lows. It has a decent chance for the first push to be false so I will be keeping an eye out for the stop run to the lows for the long today. otherwise I will be looking to short from manipulation at either the 15 minute 200 EMA or yesterdays high around 1.5200..
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases start off with German GFK Consumer Climate expected to remain flat at 5.9. A big miss to the downside should create some Euro weakness but how much is a different story. Next is French GDP for the last quarter. A big disappointment will also mean euro weakness as the core of Europe gets more knock on effects of the rest of the EU slowing.
The UK has their GDP figures also. Expecting a negative figure again showing technical recession is upon them but if you talk to regular folks they will say the recession never ended. Of course a miss to the downside will be negative and a surprise up will need to get into positive territory to be decently positive.
The US only has Pending Home Sales expected to drop back below zero after the large miss to the upside last release. With out a big miss this will most likely be a non event.
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