Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis October 3, 2014
The EUR/USD did make the first intraday push to the upside yesterday so I will have a bias for the long today. It could be looked at as a long term push due to the move out of the chop but I would rather be safe and be closer to open on direction being the end of the week and NFP day. The strongest level I see for the long down at 1.2624 is rather far from current price so the 1.2644 just above Wednesdays highs has a better chance for a turn if they are going to be pushing upward today. i would normally use the daily level its self but with it beat beat up rather badly yesterday I think 1.2644 is more significant. Otherwise I will consider the short from 1.2681 while still being cautious of a test above at 1.2694.
The GBP/USD has made a first push to the downside now after its 90 pip reversal on Wednesday. This does complicate things a little bit with the EU having the first push upward. It essentially means that the EUR/GBP will need to help dramatically or one will fail, which is the most likely case. With the GU having the clearer long term push it has the better chance for a successful short today. The only issue is that the levels are in close proximity to current price at 1.6160 and 1.6174 so they will need to push down like they are now in order to give much weight to the lower level during London today. At that point the Asian highs become more valid as well. I will be open for the long from the lows but will need to see something significant to change my short bias.
The EUR/JPY made the third push we were looking for yesterday. Congrats to the members who caught it or the GJ that showed the same set up during the Asian session. Nice trade and entry ladies 😉 Im sure some of the guys caught them too but its nice to see the women members doing well also.
Since this pair has already had its reversal I will be open on direction here today as well. If they do show the conviction to the upside here this morning I will be bias for the long and look to trade from the backside of 137.71 or wait for 137.39 since the Asian range lows are pretty far away. The 137.93 level is valid for shorting against the first push but if I can catch the long during Asia I will hold and let the trade run its course with the stop at break even.
Forex News Today
With today being NFP day I have my doubts that the Services PMI data from the Eurozone countries will get much reaction barring a massive miss. The UK Services PMI has a much better chance with it being higher impact data. Of course it will need a large miss as well to create a sustained move before the NFP data but its possible. Otherwise NFP will rule the day and we wont see much movement until then if things play out as normal. NFP is expected to jump to 214K so a better release should create USD strength while I do think that a smaller miss to the downside would have more USD weakness. The issue is at a rate of even 250K a month the US is only creating jobs for the new people coming into the work force each year. That is nothing close to a recovery. We will need to see between 350-400K a month to think that the job market is gaining traction. No I didnt forget the Unemployment Rate, just dont think it really matters at this point 🙂
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