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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY July 21, 2014 Analysis

July 20
23:37 2014

The EUR/USD did make the third push down last Friday giving me some hope we may be getting back to more normal pushes soon. However I’m not holding my breath. It did also make the reversal as well so the safer way to treat it is open on direction. Having said that I do see more backing the long rather than short here. The bottoming formation is nice along with a couple of other things that some members who have been around awhile should see. Again the safer entries will be from the extremes going short from 1.3539 or the long from 1.3490 but depending on how things play out during the Asian session and beginning of London I will be open for the long at 1.3504 or even the Asian lows if we get conviction above 1.3539.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD also made the third intraday push getting some stiff rejection off the lows as well. With no news to help these pushes along its nice to see them making more runs not waiting for news to help. Today I will be more open on direction here as well but this pair also has the signs they have a slightly better chance to make the pullback into the range along with the Euro. The best level for the long will be at Fridays lows but considering the distance from current price the 1.7061 is more likely but is also higher risk so they will need to show something very clear there. If they do show conviction above 1.7092 during the London session then they will most likely test 1.7111 and I will be willing to get long at the Asian lows with a nice set up there. Otherwise the best short has a lot of confluence at 1.7111 with the hourly 200.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY got whipped around a bit Friday making the reversal then getting smacked down again only to close around the mid range of the day. With a clear bottoming formation in, my thoughts are they will most likely make the next push up but as with both the EU and GU staying open on direction is a better choice. The safest levels are again the extremes but with the right set up I will be willing to take the long from 136.94 or 136.80 while the only level to short is 137.21. Any conviction above Fridays highs and they will probably make the next push up but be careful of the 137.40 level.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

There isn’t much for news on tap today so hopefully we will see a move showing they aren’t waiting on data to push the markets. There is German PPI data at the beginning of the Frankfurt session but barring a big miss it wont have much effect. As long as it can stay above zero then we wont get much but a big drop below may have more impact. The question will be if the Buba has more willingness to bend on full blown QE which doesn’t seem likely considering the latest ramblings from Jens Weidmann. We shall see.

Happy Trading


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