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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Analysis November 16, 2012

November 16
02:12 2012

We managed to get the second push on the EUR/USD yesterday. To be honest I had my doubts we were going to make it with the rejection during the US session Wednesday. There wasn’t a safe long entry to be had during the London session so I went with my plan of following the manipulation and we took a short during the live training session. Of course I took the 20 pip hit. I knew my streak of wins had to end sometime. 🙂 Its just a part of trading.

My bias will be to the upside today expecting the third push. The levels I will be looking for the manipulation will be the lows during the US session at 1.2759 or just a bit lower at the break out support level of 1.2751. By the time the London session opens the 15 minute 200ema will be close to the levels also and will be used as confluence. 

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Nov. 16, 2012

The GBP/USD is still in confusion mode with no clear direction. The fact that it has pushed back up into the third push chop shows that they are working other pairs at this time so its best to treat it with caution. It does seem that the rejection at yesterdays lows shows some trapping on the hourly chart.

At this point I will simply be looking for the 1 hour stop run to the highs or lows from yesterday at 1.5878 for the short or 1.5820 for the long.  Preferably seeing some trapping candle formations during the stop run. I should also mention that the short caries a bit more risk from that level due to there being another daily right above it around 1.5900 so I will need some very clear trapping patterns to take it from there. Otherwise I will be leaving this pair alone today. 

1 hour chart of the GBP/USd on Nov. 16, 2012

  Forex News Today

Scheduled news releases are typically slow for  Friday but there are a couple medium impact ones to keep an eye on. 

The Euro Zone has Bundesbank President Weidmann speaking around mid London session. What to look for is his statements on Greece and potential haircuts for the public sector debt held by the ECB and other European Central banks. My guess ids he will hold the hard line of the big NEIN but he could surprise and at least make some small concessions.

Later the US has TIC Long-Term Purchases expected to drop showing foreigners are feeling less safe with buying US securities. If this misses to the downside it will be bad for the USD. I cant say I would blame them for not having the rosy feeling on the US. It doesn’t look too good for the fiscal cliff negotiations yet and they haven’t even started. 

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How About Some Friday Humor

When I came across this article this morning I just had to share some parts of it with you. Im sure we all could use a good laugh these days. I admit the truth to it is a little discouraging but I had a good chuckle and Im sure you will too. Enjoy

You can read the full article from Zero Hedge here.

Listening to Rehn, Van Rompuy, Juncker and their cohorts is rather like listening to the cheerleaders at the football game and their advice on financial matters is probably right in-line with the knowledge of the cheerleaders; but then I don’t want to insult the cheerleaders. Everything is always “good, fine, hailed, welcomed” and the sunrise is always moments away which is fine except that we are approaching midnight and unless you happen to be in Finland the sun won’t be arriving anytime soon. These people are either smoking something, I swear, or they are off-worlders peering through rose colored glasses where the streets of Athens are regarded as the poppy fields of Oz. Everytime I read a comment from one of these people I shake my head and I wonder just which mood elevating drugs they are imbibing and how long they have been taking them.  They are out in some field past “money for nothing and chicks for free” where money not only grows in the trees but it is spent by the squirrels, hoarded by the antelopes and kumquats are the currency of exchange, for the moment, because money is hopelessly out of style this week; just ask Monsieur Hollande in Paris. As a matter of fact I have observed that there is a remarkable resemblance between Van Rompuy and one of the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders. The only difference that I can discern, in fact, is the extra can of hairspray that he uses.

The economy is now so bad in Spain that if you buy a toaster they give you a bank. (I really liked this one 🙂

Europe officially entered into a recession it was just announced this morning. The economy in Europe is so bad now that a picture is only worth two hundred words. The Europeans blame everything on the ratings agencies lately. There is some wisdom to this. “Moody” is how they are feeling and “Standard & Poor” is what they will be feeling soon. Recently in Spain it was reported that a teacher asked one of her students what his father did for a living. The little boy said his father did a striptease in one of the clubs in Madrid. The teacher was shocked and asked if this was true. The young fellow said, “No, he is the head of corporate credit for Bankia but I am too embarrassed to tell anyone.” Finally I can report that the European recession is causing a lot of confusion. Recently one of the television stations in Greece asked a man in Athens if he knew what city was the capitol of the country. He said, “Of course; about 70 Euros.”

 Happy Trading and have a Great Weekend


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  1. tay
    tay November 16, 07:07

    Thank you for sharing!

    Reply to this comment
  2. WilliamT
    WilliamT November 16, 09:38

    > 1 hour stop run
    You’ve mentioned the 1 hour a few times in the live sessions too. Would much appreciate some kind of overview (vid or whatever) on how to use the 1 hour for things like seeing stop runs, conviction behind a move, confirmation etc.


    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad November 16, 10:34

      Hi William,

      I will take care of that over the weekend. We promised members a video on the 1hr stop run awhile back but have been really busy so it got put on the back burner. I will get that done and add how to use the hourly close to your advantage also. Look for it in the members section next week.

      @ Tay
      Too bad the commentary was off today but thanks for the appreciation.


      Reply to this comment
  3. William Martin
    William Martin November 20, 10:49

    Hi Chad,

    Many thanks for explanation of 1hr stop run in the live trading session today. I really appreciate how responsive you and Sterling are to questions – and how patient you both are with us newbies. Brilliant!

    I understand from what you said in the session that Sterling will be doing a video on the 1hr stop run. Cool. I hope that some time the general use of the 1HR chart will get covered too (including topics like confirmation closes you mentioned in the live session).

    Thanks a bunch! Best thing I ever did in trading was sign up with you guys.


    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad November 21, 01:59

      Hi William

      No problem on covering that in the live session. We have been trying to get that done for some time now so it can be posted with the course. That was the least I could do and it will be posted in the live room recordings thread later today. Its uploading to our server now.

      Yes Sterling will be doing another to post in the course material but I am not sure when he will get around to it which is why I decided to cover it in detail in a recorded session.

      Thanks for the kind words buddy, they are always appreciated.


      Reply to this comment

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