Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis May 30, 2014
With the big disappointment in the US GDP release yesterday along with the same in Pending Home sales I expected the EUR/USD to have a bit of a pop to the upside and why I closed my EU short I took in the Live London Training session before the news came out. However we didn’t get much USD weakness at all from that. One has to wonder why? That would see an opportune time to start any profit taking at least and create the beginning of the end of month flows that usually run opposite of the main monthly move. However we didn’t get that but we could start to see some of that today.
I will still be slightly bias for the short today expecting the third push on the EU but a bit more open for the long considering there is enough to warrant a push to the upside today as well. The best level I see for the short right now is at 1.3620 but the daily level at 1.3613 is still valid as long as we see them hold these Asia highs and run stops from the lows of the Asian box during the London session today. Otherwise I will consider a long from 1.3589 or the stop run to the lows with a nice trapping pattern during London while watching for any conviction below. The 1.3598 level is valid for a long but I will need to see some hard evidence to take the long that convinces me to change the short bias.
The GBP/USD did pretty much the same but with a lot less flare with the same rise during the London session and subsequent chop for the rest of the day. I do see this pair as having the higher probability of making the next push down today but the week/month end flows could turn it also. I have my doubts but its surely possible. The best level for the short is at 1.6736 but they may drive it to the daily low of 1.6752 before running it down. I will be open for the long at the lows as well preferably seeing the stop run below the overall lows but if there is a nice trap just above at 1.6696 I will take a good entry from there.
Gold didn’t do much yesterday either and now showing I may just get my pullback. However that would most likely take a drop for the USD that doesn’t seem to be what they want at this time. They did show some conviction to the downside yesterday so the probability is they will keep it going. I have my doubts they will do it today but the same range at the highs Wednesday will be where I look for trapping to get short.
Forex News Today
There is not much significant news coming out today. German Retail Sales could have a big miss and cause some manipulation but considering the miss it had last release and the bar set low I have my doubts. If it does drop below zero again then we could see a more sustained move.
Later the US has Core PCE Price Index, some fed speak, Michigan Consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI. The one that has the most potential on a large miss is Chicago PMI. However with expectations for a drop my thoughts are a miss to the upside will create more movement.
Have a great weekend
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