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Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary November 7, 2012

November 07
02:40 2012

The EUR/USD did as I expected and at least made the attempt of the reversal. I was hoping for more of a push to the upside to test or do a stop run to the highs from Monday but they just didn’t have the momentum. From a fundamental perspective I am still bearish on the Euro but we cant fight the smart money when we know the odds are they will be taking back at least some of the money they have put out there as they made the 3 pushes. I did take an entry long on this pair during the live London training session from 1.2775 that was stopped out at break even by one pip after it moved 29 pips my direction. That wouldn’t be the first or 3rd time that has happened. I do know there were a few members who got a better price than I did and should have booked at least the 40-5- pips I was talking about holding for in the room. Good job guys

Today I will be treating it as we are in the 3rd push chop and looking to short from the highs of 1.2825 or possibly the highs from Monday at 1.2840. Or a clear stop run or trap to the lows of 1.2765 for a long position. As usual if we get that famous hourly close below the lows my bias will turn mainly short and I will look for the trap at either the Asian session highs or possibly the lows depending on the price action.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Nov. 7, 2012

The GBP/USD has also made the feeble attempt at the reversal and is in a third push chop. direction is unclear at best but looking at the price action there is an hourly close above the Asian highs yesterday. However it only made it up to test the lows from last Friday before it was rejected during the US session yesterday. To me that shows more bias to the downside but I will need more information before I am convinced enough to take a trade. Considering that when/if it does reach the lows from Monday at 1.5955 then I will be waiting for that hourly candle to close before jumping into any long position. I am not totally discounting a long today but the trap will need to be clear and that hourly candle must not make the close below those lows.

We did have a few members who took the GBP/USD long yesterday along with the Euro trade from the room. When they asked what the potential for the move was my answer was as with the Euro the chance for at least a stop run above Mondays highs were good but if they do plan on making an extended push to the downside a good sign for that will be it stopping at the break out level of 1.6000. That is a major psych level that has had a history of being hard to break in both directions and the ease that it was pushed through Monday shows it has a better chance of holding from the downside. Now that we have seen that the chance for the extended push is better. Hence my hesitation for a long during this third push chop at the lows.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD from Nov. 7, 2012

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Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today and all high impact events will most likely be over shadowed by the US election results and the Greek vote they are having in parliament.  As a reminder this is the same vote I was talking about in my November 2nd commentary that one of the main parties were going to vote against and then a day later it looked as if they were getting some support from some members of the other 2 parties. things at that point did not look good. 

That is not to say that the vote for more austerity is out. A lot can change politically in a few days which is why this will be the tape bomb of the day and has the possibility of being the driver of risk depending on which way the vote goes. 

The US election has almost the same potential but probably less. The main issue is how Romney has been touting that he will fire Bernanke if hes elected. this will raise some uncertainty in the markets if he does win. What most people do not understand is he is controlled by the same elites that made Obamas promise for big change turn into more of the same old s#!t. If you want proof of this you only have to look as far as the advisers Romney has chosen. In particular his chief economic advisor Glenn Hubbard. I was not aware of this before but it was sure an eye opener when I saw this article authored by Charles Furgeson. The creator of the movie Inside Job. If you havent seen it I say its a must see documentary. I am pretty sure he won the Oscar for best documentary when it was released a couple years ago.

Here is some parts from the article and part of the script when Hubbard kind of loses his cool when he was called out for some of the plain to see conflicts of interest with his actions in his past.

“Standing Behind Every Great Con Artist Is Someone Like Glenn Hubbard “

Mitt Romney has a credibility problem. He changes his beliefs like laundry (abortion, medical insurance, whether Bin Laden was worth killing, attacking Iran), refuses to disclose his tax returns, and won’t explain how he could possibly pay for the tax cuts he proposes. But there is another scandal in Romney’s campaign — namely Glenn Hubbard, Romney’s chief economic advisor, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under George W. Bush, and is now Dean of Columbia Business School.

I interviewed Hubbard for my documentary film Inside Job, and analyzed his record again for my book Predator Nation. The film interview became famous because Hubbard blew his cool after I interrogated him about his conflicts of interest: “This isn’t a deposition, sir. I was polite enough to give you time, foolishly I now see, but you have three more minutes. Give it your best shot.” But the really important thing about Hubbard isn’t his personality; it’s that as an economist and an advisor, he is a total, unmitigated disaster.

Hubbard also co-authored an article with William Dudley, then the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, entitled “How Capital Markets Enhance Economic Performance and Job Creation.” It was published by the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute in 2004, just as the housing bubble was getting seriously crazy. In my filmed interview, here’s how Hubbard described the article:

INTERVIEWER: In 2004 you co-wrote a paper with William Dudley, who was then the chief economist of Goldman Sachs. What do you think about the arguments you made in that paper?

GLENN HUBBARD: As I recall that paper, the arguments were basically to the effect that healthy capital markets are important for the economy, views that I held before and certainly hold after.

Well, here’s what that paper really said. Hubbard wrote that “The ascendancy of the U.S. capital markets” had yielded “enhanced stability of the U.S. banking system… more jobs and higher wages… less frequent and milder [recessions}… a revolution in housing finance.” Later in the article: “The capital markets have helped make the housing market less volatile… ” Next, “Credit crunches… are a thing of the past… ” and my personal favorite, “The revolution in housing finance has also… been important in making the economy less cyclical.” In other parts of the article, Hubbard and Dudley specifically praise credit default swaps for their role in reducing and spreading risk. Like wow, man.

Hubbard refused to tell me whether he was paid to write that article; no payment is disclosed in the document itself, nor on Hubbard’s CV. Which brings us to Mr. Hubbard’s many, many disclosure problems and conflicts of interest. After the release of my film Inside Job, Columbia University was forced to establish disclosure requirements for the first time for its professors. At the time, Hubbard stated that he welcomed them. Well, it wasn’t quite that way in our interview.

But we’re not done yet. There is a more that Hubbard still hasn’t disclosed, and refused to disclose to us when we were making Inside Job. On his CV, Hubbard lists The Analysis Group as a consulting client. That is misleading at best. The Analysis Group is one of a half dozen major firms that specializes in matching private companies and lobbying groups, who are the real clients, with professors who they pay to support their positions in regulatory, policy, Congressional, and legal disputes. It was The Analysis Group, for example, that arranged for Hubbard to testify on behalf of two Bear Stearns hedge fund managers who were prosecuted for securities fraud in 2009. Hubbard was paid $100,000 for his testimony.

Hubbard has been affiliated with the Analysis Group for many years, but when we asked him, he refused to disclose who he had worked for or what he had done. He also refused to provide us with a copy of the Federal financial disclosure form he was required to submit in 2001; we couldn’t obtain it from the White House, because they had already destroyed (yes, that is interesting, isn’t it?). Nor has Hubbard provided his total consulting income, his tax returns, or a comprehensive list of his income sources and clients for the period since he left the White House in 2003.

So the next time you hear Mitt Romney refuse to release his tax returns, and then tell you that he can cut taxes and balance the budget while creating lots of jobs, well… I would ask you to remember that standing behind every great con artist is someone like… Glenn Hubbard.

The way I see it is the US is in serious trouble no matter who gets the oval office. Where is Ron Paul when you need him. Oh yea his campaign was snuffed out by the same elites that backed and control both Romney and Obummer. 

Happy Trading


If you havent already read the latest article Sterling posted I recommend you do so. This was a great article in response to the many emails we get asking if what we teach can be used while having a full time job and limited screen time. Its called Trading Forex Trend Reversals – End Of Day Forex System. Sterling goes into great detail of what to look for and catch the reversal of the smart money trend.

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