Daily Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary October 12, 2012
Well here I am doing my commentary from my phone again. We did get the order in for the backup Internet yesterday so this should be the last day I have to do this.
Looking at the EUR/USD we have the first push on the reversal. Needless to say I wasn’t trading yesterday but to catch the entry it looks like one would have had to take the Asian session trade to catch it at the right level. After the original stop run of the previous days low there was no pullback for entry.
Today I am inclined to think this is a false push up on the EUR/USD even though there is a probability for the second push up as per the standard smart money cycle. What would make it clearer that they plan the next push up will be an hourly close above yesterdays highs, otherwise I will be looking for the manipulation at the previous days high to short from. If we see the hourly 200EMA hold and chop here a clear trap to the 15 minute 200EMA will be where I look for the long entry around the 1.2910 level if the trade entry criteria is clear at that level. Providing I have my darn net back by then of course.
The GBP/USD has made a short push to the upside but seems to be held back by the top of the range we considered the third push chop. At this point its up in the air on direction and if the Euro is truly a false push then the chance is high that the Pound will be dragged down with it. I will be looking to the hourly chart to see if we can get the close above the range highs or a clear hourly stop run of the highs (which we might have already had) will add probability to the short today. For the move up I would want to see a stop run bottoming formation around the 1.6020 level. The confluence is going to be the key on both the Euro and the Pound today as the cycle still needs a bit of clarification If both pairs are setting up for a trade at there higher probability manipulation points listed above this will add to my comfort in the trade.
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light today as with most Fridays but there are some events of note. The Euro Zone has its industrial production expected to go into negative territory and had a revision down on the last release so the chance for a surprise to the downside is there. Having said that I do believe that will be overshadowed by the IMF meetings going on today and over the weekend. The potential for some tape bombs are high. There was a report done by the IMF recently that EU banks will need to raise capital to the tune of 4+ billion by selling assets in the next year. This cant be good since nobody in their right mind would want to buy those assets IMHO. Can we all say fire sale =-O
Lastly from the US we have PPI figures and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. With the inflation figures well below anything that will spark the Fed my thoughts are that the Consumer Sentiment release will be the one most attention is given. A surprise to the upside could be USD positive but more than likely will just be used to manipulate rather than create any sustained move.
Have a great weekend,
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