December 16, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis
As I have mentioned before today is the beginning of the holiday trading drop in liquidity and I will be taking this time off trading like the majority of traders out there. Having said that I don’t want to leave anybody hanging on analysis during this time so I will be treating the markets as normal during the commentaries. I can not stress enough to be careful with entries at this time. This time of year is best utilized by going over past charts and learning rather than taking on extra risk due to low liquidity. Ok I’m done with the surgeon generals warning :). On to the charts.
The EUR/USD has made the second push down Friday even though its shy of a 90 pip run its within the tolerance of the average daily range so we should expect the next push down here. Since we have this run up during thespian session early on the best level to take a short will be Fridays highs at 1.3768 with a clean stop run above. I would not be treating this as a short only day with Fridays move being retraced so heavily and look for a potential long after seeing an hourly conviction close above Fridays high during the London session. With the closing of this mornings gap, widening Asian range and run up, the Friday close that corresponds with Thursdays lows becomes a significant level with potential but adding up some good confluence would be the only way to take a trade in the middle of Fridays price action. Seeing the hourly close or playing of breakout traders to the Asian highs is a must. Otherwise the only other level good for the potential long is Fridays lows at 1.3708 and if it gets there I would rather already be short since the probability of them breaking lower goes up and we will see the third push.
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The GBP/USD had its third push and came close to testing a significant daily level Friday so the probability is we will see the reversal today. The best level to get the long is the low as at 1.6261. It may go off from the psych 1.6280 level but price action will need to be clear to enter there. If it does get the full reversal up to Fridays highs then the short can be taken with trapping around the hourly 200 ema at 1.6352 but seeing the stop run above would add probability for a short during London or New York sessions.
Forex News Today
The only two significant releases today are German Manufacturing PMI expected to improve again slightly and a Mario Draghi speech later in the day. Barring a large miss on the PMI data I doubt there will be much from it and they do their normal thing today. Europe is still in shambles and it would take something big to get the markets off running on Fed printing. 2014 will be an interesting year but then again so was 2013.
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