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Decision Time For The EUR/USD – FX Market Analysis 1/26/16

January 25
23:34 2016

Decision Time For The EUR/USD

After last weeks drop on the Draghi comments the EUR/USD has really showed very little reaction. With that being said the 200EMA on the 1H is holding still and for me it acts as an extremely reliable floating reference for directional bias. As long as that level holds then the potential for further downside is the higher probability. In regards to short term market trend which we refer to as market cycle, we do not have a valid cycle to speak of. Right now we have very limited manipulation points to work from in a close proximity to the current price. With that being said I will be trading from the current listed levels on the chart and would trade any valid stop run from them.

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EUR/USD Chart - January 26th 2016

Key Level Approaching For The Pound

The GBP/USD is in a very interesting point. On one hand we are quite extended to the downside and therefore any retracement that gets going could be substantial. A great example of that is when equities crashed in 2008. 2 of the largest up days in the US equity market occurred during that crash. On the other hand the momentum to the downside to quite difficult to break. For today I will be looking at the 1.4200 level as a key line in the sand. A break and hold below that level will likely mean we make a run for the lows. Should that level hold and work up I have two upper manipulation points listed on the chart that I would consider a stop run short from.

GBP/USD Chart - January 26th 2016

Forex News For January 26th 2016

BOE’s Carney Speaks 5:45 AM Eastern: Many times we see central banks speak before different groups multiple times per week and the majority of the time we don’t get much reaction as it is general comments. When they testify before their governments policy makers about monetary policy you are likely to see some volatility and this would be one of those scenarios.

US Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM Eastern: This has been right on the edge of creating a 15+ deviation many times with at least 1 time in the last 6 months having done so. For this month 97 is the expected number.


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