Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 3rd 2014
The EUR/USD has made a clean second push to the upside yesterday, however since it is almost twice the current average daily range running 130 pips it is best to be open on direction for this pair. We also have the 40+ pip gap down this morning due to things escalating in Ukraine over the weekend. When ever we see major powers escalate in conflicts the USD benefits as funds flee to what is perceived as safer assets in the US. The way things look is this will continue as we see all attempts to close the gap on the EU are getting rejected this morning.
At this point as I am open on direction when it comes to the smart money trend, with the war drums likely getting louder this downside move started by the gap is likely to continue. The best levels for the short today will be the current Asian highs at 1.3787 but could push up as high as the most significant daily level at 1.3810 that held well during the push up Friday during the NY session. As long as they keep holding price down during the Asian session the probability of the break of the Asian highs goes down. Otherwise the gap lows at 1.3756 have potential for the long today with it being a daily level from Wednesday last week. However in order to take the long from there I will want to see them hold price toward the highs of the Asian range and then do a stop run to the lows with some clear trapping. If we do get the break down for a first push all the way to 1.3726 I will be open for the long from there looking to see the pullback during the NY session but would prefer to be short and taking profit there.
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The GBP/USD gap was smaller this morning due to the GBP being seen as less of a risk currency. It also has potentially three pushes up with two of them happening Friday along with a topping formation. Today I will have a small bias for the reversal but with the third push being shy of what we want to see along with the two pushes Friday creating an ugly chop I will be open for the long at the 1.6700 psych level or just below at 1.6680. The best level to short from is at 1.6761 but if they really need to hit stops they will pop it above 1.6767.
Forex News Today
Significant news today starts off with Spain, Italy, France and German Manufacturing PMI data. As usual the German figures are most important but we have seen more volatility with misses from the others lately. Most are expected flat with the exception of Italy so a decent sized miss will likely have the same effect and be used to manipulate. Mainly due to the most important news will be the Ukraine conflict.
Later there is also UK Manufacturing PMI expected to drop slightly. With the GBP not being seen as a risk currency this does have potential to make them push but it will take a large miss the way I see it.
The US session starts off with a Mario Draghi speech so I will be watching for his comments. This has potential to push the EU around but he will need to say something that sends a clear message to have that big of an impact which is not that likely. There is also ISM manufacturing PMI data expected to improve. As long as it comes out close to expectations then it wont add to the bad data that has potential to make the Fed change the taper, however if it does pop below 50 then the USD will weaken.
For those that trade the Aussie pairs. Keep an eye out for the interest rate decision early Tuesday morning.
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