Dow Makes New Monthly Lows On Hawkish Fed Jan 29, 2015
Equities Hit Hard By Hawkish Fed, Are They Done Propping Up Stocks?
I have to admit The FOMC was not what I expected and it seems that equities were expecting the same as I was considering the drop to new lows on the Dow Jones and S&P testing its monthly lows as well. At this point they are sticking to the plan of potentially raising rates but I still seriously doubt they will any time this or even next year. Their “inflation” and “jobs” figures, that we all know are just a farce, are what they are looking at while they do their best to try to support their “the economy is fine” mantra. Maybe they are just trying to soften the blow to stocks since we all know if they ever do just a token .10% rate hike it will send equities tanking much sooner and deeper. When we see article titles like (Stock Market Liquidity Is The Lowest Ever For An FOMC Day or Markets Tumble As FOMC ‘Upgrades‘ Economy & Jobs In Hawkish Statement) then the signal that something is definitely awry is literally smacking us in the face. The coming months are going to be fun as a trader.
EUR/USD Goes Into Chop
Since the EUR/USD has essentially gone into a range after the FOMC so I will remain open on direction for this pair today. I should also mention that any of the mid levels will carry more risk with them holding the daily range around 100 pips yesterday. If they manage to hold or fake out to yesterdays lows and run up early I will be open for the long at 1.1272 but seeing conviction below 1.1260 will open the door lower. Otherwise the best short is at 1.1383 but still a little more risky with the next daily high 40 pips away.
GBP/USD Shows Topping After Extended Pushes
With the GBP/USD showing topping after testing the recent highs I do see the probability higher for a push down on this pair but with extended ADR and short push I wont be using that to have a bias today. In order to short I want to see them hold below 1.5157 during Asia and test with a set up during London, otherwise I will wait for the test higher at 1.5192 and need a low risk set up. I will be open for the long at yesterdays lows of 1.5129 while watching for any conviction below during London. If that happens I will look for the backside entry.
EUR/JPY Holds Tuesday Range
The EUR/JPY holding up in Tuesdays range throws all sense of direction out for this pair. The best level to short is at yesterdays high but the NY/London overlap high is valid carrying more risk. If it can manage to hold the current Asian range I will be open for the short at 133.29 since its already 90+ pips but will need the UJ to agree during the London session due to the higher risk however the volume is saying its more likely to break upward right now.
Forex News Today
The calendar today starts with UK housing data expected to hold steady on the monthly but drop significant on the yearly prices. I doubt this will do much being released before London open but they may use it to manipulate before a move. Later is German Unemployment figures that should only create a move on a large miss and most likely wont be sustained.
The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims that could get them going on a figure well above 300K like last week. The shale sector losses should be trickling in now so its possible. Otherwise the only way Pending Home sales will cause a stir is on a large improvement. Otherwise it will be a non event I think
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE BROKEN VIDEO OF INSIDE JOB IN THE COMMENTARY. I DIDNT THINK I WAS COPY WRITE INFRINGING WITH AN ITALIAN VERSION ALREADY ON YOUTUBE. HOWEVER YOU CAN STILL WATCH IT AT THIS LINK. STILL A MUST SEE!
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