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Equities Rally After Consumer Confidence Collapses? July 29th 2015

July 29
05:55 2015

Sometimes I feel like I’m living in the bizarro world. A world where up is down and left is right. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again…equities should reflect the general health of the economy. Obviously there will be slight deviations from the average which are to be expected. Do you think equities reflect the general health of the economy. If you do I want some of what your taking because it must be good! What we have seen today may however signal a case for new highs as crazy as that sounds. 6 months to maybe a year ago we were in a market where good was bad for equities and bad economic data was good for equities. The main reason for this was bad economic data meant no future rate hike and the possibility of more QE. Both of which are good for equities and thus they created a rising market on negative data. 

For the last 3-6 months we have been seeing that fade. The market was respond negatively to negative data as it should. We then began to have global slow down. Greece was on fire and the Chinese equity market was starting to fold even though massive amount of manipulation money was being thrown at the market to prop it up. Its almost as if the market senses things have gone to hell just enough to keep the fed from raising rates and with any luck things will continue down enough to spark the QE 4 talk. Once again, anyone who continues to leave their money in retirement accounts attached to the stock market must be on crazy pills because when this thing does go back to reality its going to be too late. Once again another reason why I recommend taking control of your financial future and day trading market manipulation on a short term basis where you have the most control.

EUR/USD Still Mixed On Direction

Nothing really interesting on the EUR/USD today. Overall the market made a breakout to the upside and never really looked. One of the things that our day trading strategy is not designed to catch is a breakout type of market. The main reason behind that is the first breakout is often false. Most people reading this have tried a breakout trading strategy of some sort and have had poor results. The mark of a good strategy is not its ability to catch every type of market or move, rather a good strategy is one that maintains through all types of markets. If you were trading a breakout strategy in 2014 you would have absolutely been annihilated. With that being said no valid trade on the Euro. Overall today I will still be open on trade direction based from any of the listed manipulation points.

EUR/USD Chart - July 29th 2015

Pound Makes A Possible Second Push Up

The Pound has possibly created a second push to the upside. At this point however I will still remain open on direction. The only upper point that I would consider a short from would be the July monthly highs. In the July 27th 2015 Fx commentary from Monday I talked about the shift in COT Data on the Pound. Last weeks data showed a shift to the long side and since the beginning of the week that has proved true. I still need to have a valid stop run to take any trade regardless of other supporting factors and very simply the entries have not supported it as of yet. Like I always say quality is the focus not quality. 

GBP/USD Chart - July 29th 2015

Forex News For July 29th 2015

US FOMC Meeting 2:00 PM Eastern: Obviously if your in a trade you want to be getting out ahead of the news. What is going to be said is really anyone’s guess and therefore any open trades become chance at that point.  


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