Equities Rebound On Rumor Of Greek Deal May 28, 2015
Rumor Of Greek Deal Brings Back The Dip Buyers
When all else fails all we need is a little bug in the ear in the form of a rumor of a Greek deal to get a bounce in stocks. All the dip buyers needed was a little juice even if it was later denied. Somehow equities held on to their gains even after German finance minister said they werent even close to a deal. Of course this is nothing new in the trading sphere but what ever happened to the old “buy the rumor, sell the news” adage? Maybe now that should be changed to “buy the rumor, screw the news”? When we see headlines like, All It Takes For Panic-Sellers To Become Manic-Buyers: One Made Up Rumor. It begs the question of what the heck happened to selling the news?
- RUMOR – 0953ET *GREECE, CREDITORS STARTED CRAFTING STAFF LEVEL ACCORD: OFFICIAL
- RUMOR#2 – 1030ET *TSIPRAS SAYS COUNTRY CLOSE TO DEAL WITH CREDITORS
- DENIAL – 1224ET *GERMAN GOVT SURPRISED BY GREEK REPORTS OF PROGRESS: OFFICIAL
- DENIAL CONFIRMED – 1520ET *SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREEK TALKS HAVEN’T YET GONE FAR
At least now we know, in the new normal nobody is allowed to sell LMAO
EUR/USD Bounces Back
The rejection at the lows on the EUR/USD does suggest that they have run this pair down as far as they were willing on any rate hike sentiment. At this point the higher probability is for a reversal but I will need to see the conviction above yesterdays highs and the level just above at 1.0938 in order to be convinced. Otherwise there is plenty of reason to hold this range until some other stupid rumor comes out giving them a reason to push.
Today I will be open on direction looking first for the short at 1.0929 since it is closest to current price. Although the Asian highs will be valid considering the width of the range I will be cautious since they may run stops to either of the two levels above before any push down. The safer long entry would be down at 1.0826 but the daily low at 1.0862 is valid although it does carry more risk.
GBP/USD Extends Push On USD Strength
The push on the GBP/USD does make me bias for the next push down today as well. However I could make an argument for this being the third push also. Having said that, as I mentioned in previous commentaries the GU has quite a way to go before it sees a significant level to have a good chance for a reversal which is why I will remain bias for the short and remain open for a long with a clear set up around the lows of 1.5309. The best short will be from the Asian highs that has tested the 1.5360 level this morning but if there is conviction above the Asian highs they will likely be testing up to 1.5430.
EUR/JPY Shows Early Conviction Up
The hourly conviction above yesterdays highs tells me they will be testing up into the highs around 135.33 and potentially breaking for another push to the upside as long as the USD/JPY keeps heading to new highs. If it does manage to break and show the conviction above the highs from Friday last week then I will be looking for the continuation trade during London if they can manage a test. Otherwise I will be open for the short but prefer to see it hit a daily level or blow the ADR to the upside first.
Forex News Today
The calendar has an early treat in the form of a Fed member speech before London opens. I doubt there will be much movement on it unless they talk about rate increases. Otherwise later the UK has their GDP data expected to rise slightly. At this point if its close we shouldnt see much unless it drops significantly or pops above 1%.
The US only has Pending Home Sales expected to drop a bit. Considering recent housing data the probability for a surprise to the upside is greater but I am not counting on it. Towards the end of the day is another Fed member speech and again anything significant about rates will likely get a push on lower volume at that time of day.
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