Euro Strength Slows As USDX Fights Monthly Lows May 18, 2015
EUR/USD Fails 1.5000 Test As USDX Holds Feb Lows
It would seem as though there isnt enough conviction in the weak USD to run below the February lows at this time anyway. The EUR/USD has ran stops to both sides of the range last Friday holding a two day chop without even hitting the 1.5000 level so that leaves the probability higher that they hold this range for now.
There are several reasons we can find for this. ranging from a Greek emergency meeting called over the weekend to the dismal Michigan Consumer sentiment last Friday. I dont like mentioning that release here due to the fact that the data is sold to the highest bidders days in advance of the release so either it will be priced in for the most part or used like they did Friday and load up on USD shorts before the release. Of course there are other data releases I could discuss but I thought posting Max Keisers take on it over the weekend would be most beneficial since he also covers the Bund rout last week and other important points one would be wise to know. Enjoy.
EUR/USD Two day Chop Shows Indecision
Considering this two day chop along with running stops to both sides of the range I will be more open on direction while considering a long from 1.1414 during the London session. The level will need to hold during Asia and pull up so a retest before a set up has enough pips to make it worth their while. The level is riskier in the upper end of the range but with the hourly conviction above Thursdays highs, if they are going to push it up then it should hold. I will consider a short from 1.1464 as well but would prefer to see conviction below that holds during London and take the continuation trade from 1.1414.
GBP/USD Undecided Looking Weak
The GBP/USD is in the same situation as the EU within this range but the push to the lows while the EU holds its upper range suggests that the GBP is weaker in this scenario. As long as the lows hold and it pushes up closer to the Asia highs I will look for the long during London today at 1.5700 and will only consider a short from conviction below or a run to the highs of 1.5809 having missed the long.
EUR/JPY Showing Yen Weakness With USD/JPY
The EUR/JPY has shown early Yen weakness this morning with USD strength. The extended puses do suggest higher prices but it could also turn at any time. I will be slightly bias for the long on this pair today looking to the Asian lows or the 136.39 level just below. Otherwise I will be open for the short from 136.79 but will take some clear trapping to change my bias.
Forex News Today
The calendar is pretty much dead today so movement should be more price based unless we get a tape bomb regarding Greece. Otherwise Asian session traders have the RBA Meeting minutes to watch out for tomorrow.
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