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EUR/USD Breaks Out To Upside Feb. 13, 2015

February 13
03:30 2015

EUR/USD Breaks Range Up On Ukraine, Optimism On Greece

At least now we have a clear direction for the EUR/USD. Whether it be the Ukraine deal or some optimistic thoughts for a Greek deal it seems both are looking much better today. Who knows if the Ukrainian cease fire will last this time around but any easing of sanctions on Russia should be positive when trade starts back between Russia and the Euro Zone. Otherwise it seems the European Commission is seeing the light to some degree seeing that the present course for Greece is unsustainable but as I mentioned yesterday if Greece doesnt fold entirely, any deal made will soon be wanted by other bail out countries as well which wont be good for Brussels. The folowing article excerpt sums it up best.

The usual bag of tricks no longer works. And the subject Varoufakis brings to the table, that the EU and ECB economical policies have been an abject failure is no longer an extreme notion. The contagion from Syriza success can be considerable, and though it pretends otherwise, the EU has no idea what it would mean down the line. Every single option they look at that is NOT Varoufakis surrendering, must scare them out of their socks. Anything they give up will be seen as a sign of weakness, and it will encourage parties for which Syriza ‘carries the torch’, and likely raise their support and votes.

EUR/USD Gives Bias Upward

Now that we have a clear push on the EUR/USD I will be bias for the next push up today. The best level for the long being 30 pips from the Asian highs at 1.1377 will be where I look first today. Otherwise they may test the stronger level below at 1.1355 before a turn. I will be open for the short with a stop run to yesterdays highs but they will have to show me enough to change the bias.

EURUSD 1hr chart 2-13-2015

GBP/USD Has Extended Push On Good Inflation Report and Bad US Unemployment Claims

It was only a matter of time before the oil sector jobs started coming in and affecting US Unemployment. I do expect this to get worse before it gets better so this trend should continue as far as jobs go in the US. Who knows why the BOE has any reason to be optimistic on inflation when it seems the whole world is slowing down. Lifting sanctions on Russia will be a good start but who knows when that might happen.

I will have a small bias for the long today but with extended moves like this its better to remain somewhat open as well since they could also make a deeper pullback before a push. Having said that, the daily close above 1.5353 does open the door for a test of 1.5500. The stronger level for a long is down at 1.5353 but the 1.5368 level is valid as well. If they do manage to push up during Asia this morning then the Asian lows will be valid as long as they widen the range enough preferably testing the highs. Otherwise I will be open for the short at the highs but will need something showing they wont let it pass.

GBPUSD 1hr chart 2-13-2015

EUR/JPY Pushes Down On BOJ Statement Saying “No Extra QE For Now”

The move on the Yen crosses yesterday did seem drastic since I have been hearing the same statement from other Japanese sources for weeks now. They have already thrown in the kitchen sink QE but I guess they could and actually seemed to be expected to do more. This does qualify as a clear push down so I will have a bias for the short but in order for the EU and EJ to move opposite directions the UJ will need to be the driver. The best level to short will be the current Asian highs or just below at 135.84 and I will also be open for the long at 135.28 but again will need to see that they are pushing the Euro more than USD weakness.

EURJPY 1hr chart 2-13-2015


Forex News Today

The calendar starts early with French and German GDP figures so a miss on these could get them running early today. With expectations so close to the zero mark the chance for a drop showing potential recession is there. However if things do still look promising on a Greek deal and Ukrainian cease fire they will likely dismiss a small disappointment. Later the Euro Zone GDP comes out as well which will likely have the same effect baring a big disappointment.

The US only has Michigan Consumer data and a Fed member speech to mention. Otherwise the US session will likely be slow or continue previous moves.

Have a great weekend



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