EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Round Trip Again Feb. 6, 2015
EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Round Trip Yet Again With Rumors Of The SNB Behind Euro Buying
I have to say it dont surprise me that the SNB would be behind such moves on the Euro crosses. I am sure they are under pressure from local corporations to get the Swiss Franc weaker or at least some or maybe all will be seriously hurting in the near future. Essentially they are using different tools to try and weaken the Franc and not lose their shirt like they did maintaining the floor. The question is will it work? I fear this will go down in history as the last throws of a central bank thinking they can control economies and be proven wrong in the end but thats just me. With today being NFP day the probability that we get a large move before the release is low but in the current situation and Non Farm Payrolls having a lesser significance as of late it wouldnt surprise me one bit. Since it has been a long time since I posted a Max Kieser episode and the one from yesterday was very interesting I decided to post it today for you all to enjoy. As usual the front end with Stacy is good as they talk about how the banks have essentially made it to where they have no need for depositor funds, the second part when Max mentions the Rule Of Law is what stood out to me. What ever happened to the Rule of Law? It really is that simple to start a fix for the massive mess the world is in. Throw the suckers in jail.
Will The EUR/USD Retrace Again?
When we see moves like this and more of tape bomb type news driving three pushes in one day, its a sure sign that there is they are getting scared at the top. More like the fear of losing what seems to be control on their part. What is really funny to me, not being a Harvard educated man, is that “control” we think we have over anything is really just an illusion. There is only one thing I have control over in this world and that is ME. Otherwise everything else is only influence that can be lost at any moment. Its going to be a rude awakening when the powers that be have that chicken come home to roost. At this point there is no reason to have a directional bias on the EUR/USD but keeping in mind that they will almost never do the same thing twice, the potential for a breakout to the upside would be in order. Having said that of course I will be open for the short from 1.1497 during London today and while the best level for a long is down at 1.1399 the 1.1439 is valid. However being just a break out level for now I will want to see it hold on the hourly chart before setting up giving it a better chance of turning there.
GBP/USD Surges Higher On USD Weakness
The move on the GBP/USD breaking up for a blow out of its ADR does show just how weak the USD was yesterday as the SNB was going nuts buying Euros. Since the EUR/GBP held steady the force went to the GU driving it up 170 pips. Without a clearing of the weak holders with a false push down I will be treating this as a potential first push but still open for the short at the highs of 1.5342. Otherwise the best level for a long is down at 1.5283 or just above at the psych 1.5300.
EUR/JPY Runs With EU
With the EUR/JPY running with the EU this week the bias on direction is still open. The best level to short is at yesterdays highs of 135.14 but with the next daily level just above makes an entry a bit more risky there. Otherwise they look to be showing some potential conviction for a test lower this morning, most likely running down to 134.33 before a potential turn. Having said that if we do get a big reaction from a large NFP miss then the correlation will likely fall apart.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather slow other than the NFP and Unemployment Rate during the NY session. There is German Industrial Production that could get some movement out of the Euro crosses early on but baring a big miss they will likely just use it as a reason to run some stops. NFP is expected to be lower than the last print at 234K which is low by any standard of any recovery in jobs so if it does surprise to the upside it will need to be a larger miss than a disappointment to get some USD strength. If it does drop we should see the USD weakness continue. Have a great weekend Chad WATCH INSIDE JOB AT THIS LINK. STILL A MUST SEE!
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