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EUR/USD Fails To Continue Cycle Up – Market Forecast 4/8/16

April 08
00:54 2016

Euro Fails To Give Second Push Up

Yesterday we were looking for the second push to the upside in the EUR/USD which obviously never came together. One of the things that I repeat over and over is that cycle alone is not the reason we take an entry. If you read the DTFL forex commentaries you see this written almost every time I talk about cycle. If you look at the one lower point we had from yesterday the market blew through this point which disqualifies the level according to our rule set. One major part of the DTFL forex day trading course is how we disqualify a setup. Staying out of bad trades is often far more important than the good trades you get into. While you will never rule out all bad trades, multiple trade filters will help you do so. For today we will go back to trading with an open direction bias given the cycle failure. The push to the downside today was large enough to be a first push down but we are still within the previous range which is enough for me to question it and keep the directional bias open. For today I have two upper listed levels as well as one lower point. Should we get a push down today that would validate the previous move and I would more than likely be looking for the third push to the downside on Monday.

EUR/USD Chart - April 8th 2016

Pound Range Continues

We continue to remain in the previous range for the GBP/USD. The Pound did produce a nice stop run short off of a valid level today. This was in intra-day level but I personally did not take it as it was just barely valid according to the rule set we use for level selection. For anyone who took the trade it was a full +4% take profit but it will not be part of the month end review as I was not in the trade. For today pretty much everything remains the same as yesterday with the exception of one additional upper manipulation point. This additional point is very similar to the middle level on the EUR/USD which was created today as well. Officially we have two upper levels and one lower manipulation point.

GBP/USD Chart - April 8th 2016

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Forex Market News For April 8th 2016

UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production 4:30 AM Eastern: Both Industrial and Manufacturing Production and major market movers with the right size deviation. Based on previous price action I really wouldn’t call one more important than the other as they both can spike the market. This month Industrial Production is expected at .1 and Manufacturing Production is expected at -.2 If there is a conflict in the number then look for a likely reversal of the initial spike. 


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