EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 4, 2013
The EUR/USD still hasn’t broken out of the range or made a clear push to show us intent on a direction. It is a big week news wise so that can be expected in times like these. The ECB is on tap today and it will be interesting to hear what Super Mario has to say in reference to the Cyprus template. Having said that I expect this range to hold until then today and only be looking for the manipulation at key levels. If the set up isn’t crystal clear I will most likely just wait and see what the news brings. At this point its better to just play it safe and possibly just wait until next week considering tomorrow being NFP day.
The levels I will be looking at are the 1.2834 level for a long position or 1.2853 for the short. The chance of a test of yesterdays high at 1.2863 is good also and even more likely the way I see it. The hourly 200 EMA is holding it down nicely for now and could be considered for the short also but the proximity is rather close and it was beat up pretty good lately so I wont be looking at that too seriously.
The GBP/USD gave the deeper pullback I expected in yesterdays commentary. The trouble was there was only an aggressive entry just outside the Asia box and to be honest I wasn’t even paying attention since I was working on setting up the new computer all day yesterday. Not that I would have taken the trade because members know I am not that aggressive but there was a decent set of manipulation candle patterns there. Of course they weren’t pretty enough for an aggressive entry. If you did take that long I would surely be out now if I was in.
This will be the pair I pay most attention to today. Mainly because its cleaner price action and I will have a small bias for the short. I have my doubts the BOE will increase Asset Purchases this time around but I wont be holding my breath on it.
The levels I will be watching are yesterdays high at 1.5157 where it hit the 1 hour 200 EMA for the short or the lows of the gap down this morning for the long at 1.5113. I will also be watching the 20 level for the manipulation since it likes to react there and could easily be the level it reacted to this morning. I have doubts there are many stops below that level so the clean manipulation will be what I look for most. If I see the hourly conviction close above yesterdays highs I will look more for the long on a pullback.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is busy today starting with Services PMI figures from Italy, France, Germany, the EZ and later the UK. The ones to watch are of course Germany and even more so the UK. Both are expected almost flat with a slight drop for the UK. As usual the big miss will be a drop below the 50 level and both are close. Any surprise to the upside will need to be substantial to create much strength in the Euro or GBP. There is a couple bond auctions from Spain and France but I expect these to go off well. If they don’t we will probably see Euro weakness depending on how bad they are.
Later I will be watching for an increase in Asset Purchases from the BOE but having doubts it will happen. Then of course is the ECB and Super Mario later. There is a slight chance they reduce interest rates and I have seen reports Draghi is talking about loosening collateral requirements yet again. The former will be Euro negative of course and if they don’t lower rates then this news of collateral will come out during the press conference and will be Euro positive so that’s what I will be waiting to hear.
The US has the weekly Unemployment claims at the same time Draghi starts his speech so with out a large miss this will be ignored. Later Helicopter Ben has a speech so be careful if you are holding a trade into the end of the US session.
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