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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 4th 2014

March 04
02:37 2014

The EUR/USD did make the reversal for a first push down from the highs yesterday. Again it seems to be mainly due to the conflict escalating in Ukraine. There was the better than expected ISM figures that popped the EU down but that move was retraced within the next 45 minutes only to trap traders around the high of the day then pushing down later in the US session with no significant data releases to make the big boys think the Fed will increase the taper because the US is recovering realistically.

I will have the bias for the next push down today with the Asian highs being the first place I will look to take the short. However in order to have confidence they wont push it to the gap lows from yesterday I want to see the Asian session push down well below yesterdays lows widening the range. Then during the beginning of London they should try and push the Asian traders out of the market with a stop run to the Asian highs. Otherwise the probability they will push it up to 1.3756 goes up substantially before the make the turn. There is the chance this is a false push down also so I will be open for the long but will need to see that they refuse to let the current lows break along with manipulating the breakout traders at the Asian highs first.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD also made the reversal I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. Once it closed the gap it made several attempts to try and break above showing a few patterns of trapping traders before making the main move late in the day as with the Euro. I will have the bias for the short here today also. The issue I have with a short here today is the levels that have potential are in the range between 1.6670 and 1.6680 with the hourly 200 EMA hovering in between. Since the MA hasn’t been getting much respect lately the potential for them running it up to test the psych level of 1.6700 before a turn is there. Having said that they have made the push down far enough during the Asian session that the 1.6680 level has the best potential considering its almost 40 pips from the lows today.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is bare today so we should see the continuation of these moves unless we get more tape bombs as the posturing over the conflict in Ukraine continues. I have to admit Obama is in between a rock and a hard place with his big business puppet masters on one side saying stand firm while the banker puppet masters on the other saying don’t let the markets tank. This thing could go either direction at any time. My guess is it will continue to escalate until the markets lose between 500-1000 points and then allof a sudden Obama will back off a bit similar to what happened over Syria. We shall see.

Happy trading


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About Author

Chad Tell

Chad Tell

Hi all. I’m Chad Tell. I started trading Forex about 10 years ago of course spent the first few paying my dues and blowing accounts. I was finally enlightened to how the markets are manipulated on a daily basis and have successfully traded my own simplified Volume Spread Analysis for years. Eventually combining it with trading the smart money business model and the rest is history.I now live in the tropics with my wife of 4 years and our 2 wonderful children. I work in my pajamas quite often and occasionally on the beach. I am living the life I had always dreamed of as a kid. Working from home on my own terms. NO BOSS. (don’t tell my wife I said that lol) I have to admit I am blessed and I truly wish the same for you.

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  1. Robin
    Robin March 05, 09:16

    Another great commentary and market review. Good point on the E/U and G/U levels.

    You guys are great and provide super support.

    Reply to this comment
  2. Robin
    Robin March 05, 11:21

    Gotta tell you Chad, you called that E/U right on time… Amazing

    Reply to this comment

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