EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 13, 2013
As I glance at the charts this morning its easy to see that Fridays NFP figures were a pretty big miss. When I went to look at the exact figures saying it was a big miss is probably an understatement. With only 74k jobs created in December that includes the holiday season part time workers included its shows us that there is nothing any where close to a recovery happening in the US. What is really funny is the Unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%. Im sure that really isn’t funny to all the folks who just lost their benefits which could be the only reason for such a dismal amount of jobs created to have such a positive or should I say not so positive Unemployment Rate data. We can just about guarantee that the taper event will stop in its tracks and eventually increase the printing but on the other hand all wee need is the Unemployment Rate to drop a couple more points and its within their target so we may see it then right? I doubt it.
The chart of the Euro also shows a first push up after the false push down last week Wednesday giving more probability that we will see the second push today. The best level I see for them to start from is 1.3655 but with the large move Friday they may want to push some weak holders out of the market and push as low as 1.3632. having said that with the 1hr and 4hr 200 emas in between those levels either one could hold with the 4hr having the better chance. If we get the conviction above Fridays highs during the London session then the Asian lows will be the first place I look for the manipulation
The GBP/USD is in the same position with a first push upward. The best place to see the next push up from is at 1.6480 psych level giving confluence also. There is the chance we see the conviction above the highs here too but with the GBP being the weaker currency I have my doubts that will happen. If that does occur then I will start looking for manipulation at 1.6492 area but will prefer the lower level and the trapping will need to be clear. There is also the chance this pair runs down from a top run to the highs but there will need to be something clear to change the small bias I have for the long.
Forex News Today
The Economic Calendar is bare of any significant news events today so we should see a continuation of more pricing in of the Fed printing more money in the future. If we do see equities take a tumble along with getting the next push I am expecting it will show that they are thinking Europe is the slightly less dirty shirt in the room and has a good chance to continue until we see more data form Europe.
For those who want to check out a more detailed explanation of what the jobs numbers really meant you can check out this article.
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